Climatology

@misc{blumenstock1941climate3,
    author = "Blumenstock, D. I. and Thornthwaithe, C. W",
    title = "Climate and The World Pattern, in Climate and Man, 1941 of United States Department of Agriculture Yearbook",
    year = "1941",
    howpublished = "Washington, D.C., United States Department of Agriculture, p. 98-127; 1248 pp",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Blumenstock, D. I., and Thornthwaithe, C. W., 1941, Climate and The World Pattern, in Climate and Man, 1941 of United States Department of Agriculture Yearbook: Washington, D.C., United States Department of Agriculture, p. 98-127; 1248 pp.}"
}

@misc{brooke1949climate4,
    author = "Brooke, C. E. P",
    title = "Climate Through the Ages",
    year = "1949",
    howpublished = "New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 395 p",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Brooke, C. E. P., 1949, Climate Through the Ages: New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 395 p.}"
}

@book{byers1954the5,
    author = "Byers, H. G",
    title = "The atmosphere up to 30 kilometers, in Kuiper, G. P., ed., The Earth as a Planet",
    year = "1954",
    publisher = "Chicago, University of Chicago Press",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Byers, H. G., 1954, The atmosphere up to 30 kilometers, in Kuiper, G. P., ed., The Earth as a Planet: Chicago, University of Chicago Press.}"
}

@misc{daubenmire1956climate7,
    author = "Daubenmire, R. F",
    title = "Climate as a determinant of vegetation distribution in eastern Washington and northern Idaho",
    year = "1956",
    howpublished = "Ecological Monographs, v. 26, p. 131-154",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Daubenmire, R. F., 1956, Climate as a determinant of vegetation distribution in eastern Washington and northern Idaho: Ecological Monographs, v. 26, p. 131-154.}"
}

@misc{darlington1959area6,
    author = "Darlington, P. J",
    title = "Area, climate, and evolution",
    year = "1959",
    howpublished = "Evolution, v. 13, p. 488- 510",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Darlington, P. J., 1959, Area, climate, and evolution: Evolution, v. 13, p. 488- 510.}"
}

@misc{blair1965weather1,
    author = "Blair, T. A. and Fite, R. C",
    title = "Weather Elements",
    year = "1965",
    howpublished = "Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Blair, T. A., and Fite, R. C., 1965, Weather Elements: Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall.}"
}

@misc{veeh1970astronomical23,
    author = "Veeh, H. H. and Chappell, J",
    title = "Astronomical theory of climatic change",
    year = "1970",
    howpublished = "support from New Guinea: Science, v. 167, p. 862-865",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Veeh, H. H., and Chappell, J., 1970, Astronomical theory of climatic change: support from New Guinea: Science, v. 167, p. 862-865.}"
}

@techreport{blank1975pliocene2,
    author = "Blank, R. G. and Margolis, S. V",
    title = "Pliocene climatic and glacial history of Antarctica as revealed by southeast Indian Ocean deep-sea cores",
    year = "1975",
    howpublished = "Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 86, p. 1058-1066",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Blank, R. G., and Margolis, S. V., 1975, Pliocene climatic and glacial history of Antarctica as revealed by southeast Indian Ocean deep-sea cores: Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 86, p. 1058-1066.}"
}

@article{thompson1975climatological22,
    author = "Thompson, L. G. and Hamilton, W. L. and Bull, C",
    title = {Climatological implications of microparticle concentrations in the ice core from "Byrd" Station, western Antarctica},
    year = "1975",
    journal = "Journal of Glaciology, v. 14, p. 433-444",
    note = {talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Thompson, L. G., Hamilton, W. L., and Bull, C., 1975, Climatological implications of microparticle concentrations in the ice core from "Byrd" Station, western Antarctica: Journal of Glaciology, v. 14, p. 433-444.}}
}

@misc{ninkovich1976explosive14,
    author = "Ninkovich, D. and Donn, W. L",
    title = "Explosive Cenozoic volcanism and climatic implications",
    year = "1976",
    howpublished = "Science, v. 194, p. 899-906",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Ninkovich, D., and Donn, W. L., 1976, Explosive Cenozoic volcanism and climatic implications: Science, v. 194, p. 899-906.}"
}

@inproceedings{stuvier1976miami21,
    author = "Stuvier, M",
    title = "Miami conference on isotope climatology and paleoclimatology",
    year = "1976",
    booktitle = "Eos, v. 57, no. 1, p. 830-836",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Stuvier, M., 1976, Miami conference on isotope climatology and paleoclimatology: Eos, v. 57, no. 1, p. 830-836.}"
}

@techreport{donn1977model8,
    author = "Donn, W. L. and Shaw, D. M",
    title = "Model of climate evolution based on continental drift and polar wandering",
    year = "1977",
    howpublished = "Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 88, p. 390-396",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Donn, W. L., and Shaw, D. M., 1977, Model of climate evolution based on continental drift and polar wandering: Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 88, p. 390-396.}"
}

@misc{kerr1978climate10,
    author = "Kerr, R. A",
    title = "Climate control",
    year = "1978",
    howpublished = "How large a role for orbital variations?: Science, v. 201, p. 144-146",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Kerr, R. A., 1978, Climate control: How large a role for orbital variations?: Science, v. 201, p. 144-146.}"
}

@misc{lockwood1979causes13,
    author = "Lockwood, J. G",
    title = "Causes of Climates",
    year = "1979",
    howpublished = "London, Arnold",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Lockwood, J. G., 1979, Causes of Climates: London, Arnold.}"
}

@misc{rampino1979can17,
    author = "Rampino, M. R. and Self, S. and Fairbridge, R. W",
    title = "Can rapid climatic change cause volcanic eruptions?",
    year = "1979",
    howpublished = "Science, v. 206, p. 826-830",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Rampino, M. R., Self, S., and Fairbridge, R. W., 1979, Can rapid climatic change cause volcanic eruptions?: Science, v. 206, p. 826-830.}"
}

@misc{ruddieman1979causes20,
    author = "Ruddieman, W. F. and McIntyre, A. and Hays, J",
    title = "Causes and mechanisms of climate change",
    year = "1979",
    howpublished = "Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Yearbook, v. 6, p. 27-30",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Ruddieman, W. F., McIntyre, A., and Hays, J., 1979, Causes and mechanisms of climate change: Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Yearbook, v. 6, p. 27-30.}"
}

List of contributors Preface Part I. Introduction: 1. Past climates and their impact on man: a review M. J. Ingram, G. Farmer and T. M. L. Wigley Part II. Reconstruction of Past Climates: 2. The use of stable isotope data in climate reconstruction J. Gray 3. Glaciological evidence of Holocene climatic change S. C. Porter 4. The use of pollen analysis in the reconstruction of past climates: a review H. J. B. Birks 5. Reconstructing seasonal to century time scale variations in climate from tree-ring evidence H. C. Fritts, G. R. Lofgren and G. A. Gordon 6. Archaeological evidence for climatic change during the last 5000 years R. McGhee 7. The use of documentary sources for the study of past climates M. J. Ingram, D. J. Underhill and G. Farmer 8. An analysis of the little Ice Age climate in Switzerland and its consequences for agricultural production C. Pfister 9. The historical climatology of Africa S. E. Nicholson 10. Drought and floods in China, 1470-1979 Wand Shao-Wu and Zhao Zong-Ci Part III. Towards a Theory of Climate History Interactions: 11. An approach to the study of the development of climate and its impact in human affairs H. H. Lamb 12. Short-term climactic fluctuations and their economic role H. Flohn 13. Climatic change and the agricultural frontier: a research strategy M. L. Parry 14. History and climate: some economic models J. L. Anderson 15. Climate and popular unrest in late medieval Castile A. Mackay Part IV. Climate-History Interactions: Some Case Studies: 16. Climate, environment and history: the case of Roman North Africa B. D. Shaw 17. The economics of extinction in Norse Greenland T. H. McGovern 18. Weather and the peasantry of Upper Brittany, 1780-89 D. M. G. Sutherland 19. Climatic stress and Maine agriculture, 1785-1885 D. C. Smith, H. W. Borns, W. R. Baron and A. E. Bridges 20. Droughts in India over the last 200 years, and their socio-economic impacts and remedial measures for them D. A. Mooley and G. B. Pant 21. The effect of climate fluctuations on human populations: two hypotheses M. J. Bowden, R. W. Kates, P. A. Kay, W. E. Riebsame, R. A. Warrick, D. L. Johnson, H. A. Gould and D. Weiner Author index Subject index.

@book{openalexw1495495925,
    author = "Wigley, T. M. L. and Ingram, Michael and Farmer, G. Thomas",
    title = "Climate and history: studies in past climates and their impact on man",
    year = "1981",
    booktitle = "Cambridge University Press eBooks",
    abstract = "List of contributors Preface Part I. Introduction: 1. Past climates and their impact on man: a review M. J. Ingram, G. Farmer and T. M. L. Wigley Part II. Reconstruction of Past Climates: 2. The use of stable isotope data in climate reconstruction J. Gray 3. Glaciological evidence of Holocene climatic change S. C. Porter 4. The use of pollen analysis in the reconstruction of past climates: a review H. J. B. Birks 5. Reconstructing seasonal to century time scale variations in climate from tree-ring evidence H. C. Fritts, G. R. Lofgren and G. A. Gordon 6. Archaeological evidence for climatic change during the last 5000 years R. McGhee 7. The use of documentary sources for the study of past climates M. J. Ingram, D. J. Underhill and G. Farmer 8. An analysis of the little Ice Age climate in Switzerland and its consequences for agricultural production C. Pfister 9. The historical climatology of Africa S. E. Nicholson 10. Drought and floods in China, 1470-1979 Wand Shao-Wu and Zhao Zong-Ci Part III. Towards a Theory of Climate History Interactions: 11. An approach to the study of the development of climate and its impact in human affairs H. H. Lamb 12. Short-term climactic fluctuations and their economic role H. Flohn 13. Climatic change and the agricultural frontier: a research strategy M. L. Parry 14. History and climate: some economic models J. L. Anderson 15. Climate and popular unrest in late medieval Castile A. Mackay Part IV. Climate-History Interactions: Some Case Studies: 16. Climate, environment and history: the case of Roman North Africa B. D. Shaw 17. The economics of extinction in Norse Greenland T. H. McGovern 18. Weather and the peasantry of Upper Brittany, 1780-89 D. M. G. Sutherland 19. Climatic stress and Maine agriculture, 1785-1885 D. C. Smith, H. W. Borns, W. R. Baron and A. E. Bridges 20. Droughts in India over the last 200 years, and their socio-economic impacts and remedial measures for them D. A. Mooley and G. B. Pant 21. The effect of climate fluctuations on human populations: two hypotheses M. J. Bowden, R. W. Kates, P. A. Kay, W. E. Riebsame, R. A. Warrick, D. L. Johnson, H. A. Gould and D. Weiner Author index Subject index.",
    openalex = "W1495495925"
}

@misc{ruddieman1981oceanic19,
    author = "Ruddieman, W. F. and McIntyre, A",
    title = "Oceanic mechanisms for amplification of the 23,000-year ice-volume cycle",
    year = "1981",
    howpublished = "Science, v. 212, p. 617-627",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Ruddieman, W. F., and McIntyre, A., 1981, Oceanic mechanisms for amplification of the 23,000-year ice-volume cycle: Science, v. 212, p. 617-627.}"
}

@incollection{bach1984climate,
    author = "Bach, Wilfrid",
    title = "Climate and Climatic Change",
    year = "1984",
    booktitle = "Our Threatened Climate",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-7242-1\_3",
    doi = "10.1007/978-94-009-7242-1\_3",
    openalex = "W2501308727",
    pages = "30-45"
}

@techreport{ruddieman1984iceage18,
    author = "Ruddieman, W. F",
    title = "Ice-age thermal and climatic role of the surface Atlantic Ocean, 40 degrees N to 63 degrees N",
    year = "1984",
    howpublished = "Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 95, p. 381-396",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Ruddieman, W. F., 1984, Ice-age thermal and climatic role of the surface Atlantic Ocean, 40 degrees N to 63 degrees N: Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 95, p. 381-396.}"
}

@misc{olsen1986a15,
    author = "Olsen, P. E",
    title = "A 40-million-year lake record of early Mesozoic orbital climatic forcing",
    year = "1986",
    howpublished = "Science, v. 234, p. 842-848",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Olsen, P. E., 1986, A 40-million-year lake record of early Mesozoic orbital climatic forcing: Science, v. 234, p. 842-848.}"
}

@misc{kerr1987milankovich11,
    author = "Kerr, R. A",
    title = "Milankovich climate cycles through the ages",
    year = "1987",
    howpublished = "Science, v. 235, p. 973- 994",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Kerr, R. A., 1987, Milankovich climate cycles through the ages: Science, v. 235, p. 973- 994.}"
}

@misc{laferriere1987effects12,
    author = "Laferriere, A. P. and Hattin, D. E. and Archer, A. W",
    title = "Effects of climate, tectonics, and sea-level changes on rhymthmic bedding patterns in the Niobrara Formation (Upper Cretaceous), U.S. Western Interior",
    year = "1987",
    howpublished = "Geology, v. 15, p. 233-236",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Laferriere, A. P., Hattin, D. E., and Archer, A. W., 1987, Effects of climate, tectonics, and sea-level changes on rhymthmic bedding patterns in the Niobrara Formation (Upper Cretaceous), U.S. Western Interior: Geology, v. 15, p. 233-236.}"
}

@article{paul1988physiological16,
    author = "Paul, G. S",
    title = "Physiological, migratorial, climatological, geophysical, survival and evolutionary implications of polar dinosaurs",
    year = "1988",
    journal = "Journal of Paleontology, v. 62, p. 640-652",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Paul, G. S., 1988, Physiological, migratorial, climatological, geophysical, survival and evolutionary implications of polar dinosaurs: Journal of Paleontology, v. 62, p. 640-652.}"
}

@book{issar1990water9,
    author = "Issar, A. S",
    title = "Water Shall Flow from the Rock (Hydrogeology and Climate in the Lands of the Bible)",
    year = "1990",
    publisher = "New York, Springer-Verlag, 213 p",
    note = "talkorigins\_source = {true}; raw\_reference = {Issar, A. S., 1990, Water Shall Flow from the Rock (Hydrogeology and Climate in the Lands of the Bible): New York, Springer-Verlag, 213 p.}"
}

Response surfaces describing the empirical dependence of surface pollen percentages of 13 taxa on three standard climatic variables (mean July temperature, mean January temperature, and mean annual precipitation) in eastern North America were used to infer past climates from palynological data. Inferred climates at 3000—yr intervals from 18 000 years ago to the present, based on six taxa (spruce, birch, northern pines, oak, southern pines, and prairie forbs), were used to generate time series of simulated isopoll maps for these taxa and seven others (hickory, fir, beech, hemlock, elm, alder, and sedge). The simulations captured the essential features of the observed isopoll maps for both sets of taxa, including differences in migration patterns during the past 10 000 yr that have previously been attributed to differential migration lag. These results establish that the continental—scale vegetation patterns have responded to continuous changes in climate from the last glacial maximum to the present, with lags ≤ 1500 yr. The inferred climatic changes include seasonality changes consistent with orbitally controlled changes in insolation, and shifts in temperature and moisture gradients that are consistent with modelled climatic interactions of the insolation changes with the shrinking Laurentide ice sheet. These results pose new ecological questions about the processes by which vegetated landscapes approach dynamic equilibrium with their changing environment.

@article{doi1023071941558,
    author = "Prentice, I. Colin and Bartlein, Patrick J. and Webb, Thompson",
    title = "Vegetation and Climate Change in Eastern North America Since the Last Glacial Maximum",
    year = "1991",
    journal = "Ecology",
    abstract = "Response surfaces describing the empirical dependence of surface pollen percentages of 13 taxa on three standard climatic variables (mean July temperature, mean January temperature, and mean annual precipitation) in eastern North America were used to infer past climates from palynological data. Inferred climates at 3000—yr intervals from 18 000 years ago to the present, based on six taxa (spruce, birch, northern pines, oak, southern pines, and prairie forbs), were used to generate time series of simulated isopoll maps for these taxa and seven others (hickory, fir, beech, hemlock, elm, alder, and sedge). The simulations captured the essential features of the observed isopoll maps for both sets of taxa, including differences in migration patterns during the past 10 000 yr that have previously been attributed to differential migration lag. These results establish that the continental—scale vegetation patterns have responded to continuous changes in climate from the last glacial maximum to the present, with lags ≤ 1500 yr. The inferred climatic changes include seasonality changes consistent with orbitally controlled changes in insolation, and shifts in temperature and moisture gradients that are consistent with modelled climatic interactions of the insolation changes with the shrinking Laurentide ice sheet. These results pose new ecological questions about the processes by which vegetated landscapes approach dynamic equilibrium with their changing environment.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.2307/1941558",
    doi = "10.2307/1941558",
    openalex = "W2113890242"
}

@article{dlugolecki1992insurance,
    author = "Dlugolecki, Andrew F",
    title = "Insurance Implications of Climatic Change",
    year = "1992",
    journal = "The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1057/gpp.1992.30",
    doi = "10.1057/gpp.1992.30",
    number = "3",
    openalex = "W2247279420",
    pages = "393-405",
    volume = "17",
    references = "doi102307215206, doi105860choice294536"
}

Abstract The relationship between mountain permafrost and climate is still relatively unknown. The implications of zonation (latitude, continentality), the various climatic parameters (MAAT; freezing and thawing indices; basal snow temperature, BTS; solar radiation; and surface heat balance) and climate change are outlined for mountain permafrost. Some research priorities are suggested.

@article{doi101002ppp3430030205,
    author = "Guodong, Cheng and Dramis, F.",
    title = "Distribution of mountain permafrost and climate",
    year = "1992",
    journal = "Permafrost and Periglacial Processes",
    abstract = "Abstract The relationship between mountain permafrost and climate is still relatively unknown. The implications of zonation (latitude, continentality), the various climatic parameters (MAAT; freezing and thawing indices; basal snow temperature, BTS; solar radiation; and surface heat balance) and climate change are outlined for mountain permafrost. Some research priorities are suggested.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.3430030205",
    doi = "10.1002/ppp.3430030205",
    openalex = "W1999433544"
}

Book review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change report on global warming and the greenhouse effect. Covers the scientific basis for knowledge of the future climate. Presents chemistry of greenhouse gases and mathematical modelling of the climate system. The book is primarily for government policy makers.

@article{doi1023071971875,
    author = "Bongaarts, John",
    title = "Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment.",
    year = "1992",
    journal = "Population and Development Review",
    abstract = "Book review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change report on global warming and the greenhouse effect. Covers the scientific basis for knowledge of the future climate. Presents chemistry of greenhouse gases and mathematical modelling of the climate system. The book is primarily for government policy makers.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.2307/1971875",
    doi = "10.2307/1971875",
    openalex = "W1518504097"
}

Foreword Preface 1992 Supplement A. Greenhouse gases A1. Sources and sinks A2. Radiative forcing of climate A3. Emissions scenarios for IPCC: an update B. Climate modelling, climate prediction and model validation C. Observed climate variability and change Annex Appendices. Sponsored jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme

@book{openalexw1759145845,
    author = "Houghton, J. T. and Callander, B.A. and Varney, Stuart",
    title = "Climate change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment",
    year = "1992",
    abstract = "Foreword Preface 1992 Supplement A. Greenhouse gases A1. Sources and sinks A2. Radiative forcing of climate A3. Emissions scenarios for IPCC: an update B. Climate modelling, climate prediction and model validation C. Observed climate variability and change Annex Appendices. Sponsored jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme",
    openalex = "W1759145845"
}

Sir Crispin Tickell, Warden of Green College, Oxford since October 1990 brought to the lecture theatre an unusual combination of international experience and specialist knowledge of the environment. His distinguished career in the Diplomatic Service culminated in the posts of British Ambassador to Mexico, Permanent Secretary of the Overseas Development Administration (the government department responsible for aid and technical assistance), and British Permanent Representative (Ambassador) to the United Nations, a position which he held until taking up his present appointment in Oxford. His last two official appointments, in particular, enabled him both to expand and deploy the environmental interests which he had developed in parallel with his diplomatic career. During a sabbatical year at Harvard University in 1975–6 he wrote a study of Climatic change and world affairs which was well received, on publication, by expert and layman alike. His knowledge of climatology and imaginative interest in the social implications of climatic change were acknowledged by his appointment as an unofficial adviser on environmental matters to Margaret Thatcher. He delivered his lecture on the day of her resignation as Prime Minister.

@incollection{tickell1992implications,
    author = "Tickell, Crispin",
    title = "Implications of global climatic change",
    year = "1992",
    booktitle = "Monitaring the Environment",
    abstract = "Sir Crispin Tickell, Warden of Green College, Oxford since October 1990 brought to the lecture theatre an unusual combination of international experience and specialist knowledge of the environment. His distinguished career in the Diplomatic Service culminated in the posts of British Ambassador to Mexico, Permanent Secretary of the Overseas Development Administration (the government department responsible for aid and technical assistance), and British Permanent Representative (Ambassador) to the United Nations, a position which he held until taking up his present appointment in Oxford. His last two official appointments, in particular, enabled him both to expand and deploy the environmental interests which he had developed in parallel with his diplomatic career. During a sabbatical year at Harvard University in 1975–6 he wrote a study of Climatic change and world affairs which was well received, on publication, by expert and layman alike. His knowledge of climatology and imaginative interest in the social implications of climatic change were acknowledged by his appointment as an unofficial adviser on environmental matters to Margaret Thatcher. He delivered his lecture on the day of her resignation as Prime Minister.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198584087.003.0005",
    doi = "10.1093/oso/9780198584087.003.0005",
    openalex = "W4388324383",
    pages = "93-104"
}

Solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiances are reconstructed annually from 1610 to the present. This epoch includes the Maunder Minimum of anomalously low solar activity (circa 1645–1715) and the subsequent increase to the high levels of the present Modern Maximum. In this reconstruction, the Schwabe (11‐year) irradiance cycle and a longer term variability component are determined separately, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre‐industrial period from 1610 to 1800, implying a predominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970.

@article{doi10102995gl03093,
    author = "Lean, J. and Beer, J. and Bradley, Raymond S.",
    title = "Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change",
    year = "1995",
    journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
    abstract = "Solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiances are reconstructed annually from 1610 to the present. This epoch includes the Maunder Minimum of anomalously low solar activity (circa 1645–1715) and the subsequent increase to the high levels of the present Modern Maximum. In this reconstruction, the Schwabe (11‐year) irradiance cycle and a longer term variability component are determined separately, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre‐industrial period from 1610 to 1800, implying a predominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/95gl03093",
    doi = "10.1029/95gl03093",
    openalex = "W2080002323"
}

1 The Atmosphere. 2 Atmospheric Trace Constituents. 3 Chemical Kinetics. 4 Atmospheric Radiation and Photochemistry. 5 Chemistry of the Stratosphere. 6 Chemistry of the Troposphere. 7 Chemistry of the Atmospheric Aqueous Phase. 8 Properties of the Atmospheric Aerosol. 9 Dynamics of Single Aerosol Particles. 10 Thermodynamics of Aerosols. 11 Nucleation. 12 Mass Transfer Aspects of Atmospheric Chemistry. 13 Dynamics of Aerosol Populations. 14 Organic Atmospheric Aerosols. 15 Interaction of Aerosols with Radiation. 16 Meteorology of the Local Scale. 17 Cloud Physics. 18 Atmospheric Diffusion. 19 Dry Deposition. 20 Wet Deposition. 21 General Circulation of the Atmosphere. 22 Global Cycles: Sulfur and Carbon. 23 Climate and Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere. 24 Aerosols and Climate. 25 Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models. 26 Statistical Models.

@article{doi1010631882420,
    author = "Seinfeld, John H. and Pandis, Spyros Ν. and Noone, K.",
    title = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change",
    year = "1998",
    journal = "Physics Today",
    abstract = "1 The Atmosphere. 2 Atmospheric Trace Constituents. 3 Chemical Kinetics. 4 Atmospheric Radiation and Photochemistry. 5 Chemistry of the Stratosphere. 6 Chemistry of the Troposphere. 7 Chemistry of the Atmospheric Aqueous Phase. 8 Properties of the Atmospheric Aerosol. 9 Dynamics of Single Aerosol Particles. 10 Thermodynamics of Aerosols. 11 Nucleation. 12 Mass Transfer Aspects of Atmospheric Chemistry. 13 Dynamics of Aerosol Populations. 14 Organic Atmospheric Aerosols. 15 Interaction of Aerosols with Radiation. 16 Meteorology of the Local Scale. 17 Cloud Physics. 18 Atmospheric Diffusion. 19 Dry Deposition. 20 Wet Deposition. 21 General Circulation of the Atmosphere. 22 Global Cycles: Sulfur and Carbon. 23 Climate and Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere. 24 Aerosols and Climate. 25 Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models. 26 Statistical Models.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1063/1.882420",
    doi = "10.1063/1.882420",
    openalex = "W2020729558"
}

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was \njointly established by the World Meteorological Organization \nand the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to \nassess the scientific and technical literature on climate change, \nthe potential impacts of changes in climate, and options for \nadaption to and mitigation of climate change. Since its inception, \nthe IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, \nSpecial Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies and other \nproducts which have become standard works of reference, \nwidely used by policymakers, scientists and other experts. \nThis Special Report, which has been produced by Working \nGroup II of the IPCC, builds on the Working Group's contribution \nto the Second Assessment Report (SAR), and incorporates \nmore recent information made available since mid-1995. \nIt has been prepared in response to a request from the \nSubsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice \n(SBSTA) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate \nChange (UNFCCC). It addresses an important question posed \nby the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC, \nnamely, the degree to which human conditions and the natural \nenvironment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate \nchange. The report establishes a common base of information \nregarding the potential costs and benefits of climatic change, \nincluding the evaluation of uncertainties, to help the COP \ndetermine what adaptation and mitigation measures might be \njustified. The report consists of vulnerability assessments for \n10 regions that comprise the Earth's entire land surface and \nadjoining coastal seas: Africa, Arid Western Asia (including the \nMiddle East), Australasia, Europe, Latin America, North \nAmerica, the Polar Regions (The Arctic and the Antarctic), \nSmall Island States, Temperate Asia and Tropical Asia. It also \nincludes several annexes that provide information about climate \nobservations, climate projections, vegetation distribution \nprojections and socioeconomic trends.

@book{openalexw1567561872,
    author = "Watson, Robert T. and Zinyowera, Marufu C. and Moss, Richard H. and Dokken, David Jon",
    title = "The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability",
    year = "1998",
    booktitle = "University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas)",
    abstract = "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was \njointly established by the World Meteorological Organization \nand the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to \nassess the scientific and technical literature on climate change, \nthe potential impacts of changes in climate, and options for \nadaption to and mitigation of climate change. Since its inception, \nthe IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, \nSpecial Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies and other \nproducts which have become standard works of reference, \nwidely used by policymakers, scientists and other experts. \nThis Special Report, which has been produced by Working \nGroup II of the IPCC, builds on the Working Group's contribution \nto the Second Assessment Report (SAR), and incorporates \nmore recent information made available since mid-1995. \nIt has been prepared in response to a request from the \nSubsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice \n(SBSTA) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate \nChange (UNFCCC). It addresses an important question posed \nby the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC, \nnamely, the degree to which human conditions and the natural \nenvironment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate \nchange. The report establishes a common base of information \nregarding the potential costs and benefits of climatic change, \nincluding the evaluation of uncertainties, to help the COP \ndetermine what adaptation and mitigation measures might be \njustified. The report consists of vulnerability assessments for \n10 regions that comprise the Earth's entire land surface and \nadjoining coastal seas: Africa, Arid Western Asia (including the \nMiddle East), Australasia, Europe, Latin America, North \nAmerica, the Polar Regions (The Arctic and the Antarctic), \nSmall Island States, Temperate Asia and Tropical Asia. It also \nincludes several annexes that provide information about climate \nobservations, climate projections, vegetation distribution \nprojections and socioeconomic trends.",
    openalex = "W1567561872",
    references = "doi1023071310052, doi1023071941811"
}

The construction of a 0.5° lat × 0.5° long surface climatology of global land areas, excluding Antarctica, is described. The climatology represents the period 1961–90 and comprises a suite of nine variables: precipitation, wet-day frequency, mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapor pressure, sunshine, cloud cover, ground frost frequency, and wind speed. The climate surfaces have been constructed from a new dataset of station 1961–90 climatological normals, numbering between 19 800 (precipitation) and 3615 (wind speed). The station data were interpolated as a function of latitude, longitude, and elevation using thin-plate splines. The accuracy of the interpolations are assessed using cross validation and by comparison with other climatologies. This new climatology represents an advance over earlier published global terrestrial climatologies in that it is strictly constrained to the period 1961–90, describes an extended suite of surface climate variables, explicitly incorporates elevation as a predictor variable, and contains an evaluation of regional errors associated with this and other commonly used climatologies. The climatology is already being used by researchers in the areas of ecosystem modelling, climate model evaluation, and climate change impact assessment. The data are available from the Climatic Research Unit and images of all the monthly fields can be accessed via the World Wide Web.

@article{doi1011751520044219990120829rtcstc20co2,
    author = "New, Mark and Hulme, Mike and Jones, P. D.",
    title = "Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology",
    year = "1999",
    journal = "Journal of Climate",
    abstract = "The construction of a 0.5° lat × 0.5° long surface climatology of global land areas, excluding Antarctica, is described. The climatology represents the period 1961–90 and comprises a suite of nine variables: precipitation, wet-day frequency, mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapor pressure, sunshine, cloud cover, ground frost frequency, and wind speed. The climate surfaces have been constructed from a new dataset of station 1961–90 climatological normals, numbering between 19 800 (precipitation) and 3615 (wind speed). The station data were interpolated as a function of latitude, longitude, and elevation using thin-plate splines. The accuracy of the interpolations are assessed using cross validation and by comparison with other climatologies. This new climatology represents an advance over earlier published global terrestrial climatologies in that it is strictly constrained to the period 1961–90, describes an extended suite of surface climate variables, explicitly incorporates elevation as a predictor variable, and contains an evaluation of regional errors associated with this and other commonly used climatologies. The climatology is already being used by researchers in the areas of ecosystem modelling, climate model evaluation, and climate change impact assessment. The data are available from the Climatic Research Unit and images of all the monthly fields can be accessed via the World Wide Web.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0829:rtcstc>2.0.co;2",
    doi = "10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0829:rtcstc>2.0.co;2",
    openalex = "W2179545855",
    references = "doi101002joc3370100202, doi1011751520044219950081284gpeboa20co2, doi1011751520045019940330140astmfm20co2"
}

Fundamental plant–environment relationships were revealed by analyses of 20-yr height and survival of 118 populations representing two subspecies of Pinus contorta growing in common gardens at 60 environmentally disparate test sites in British Columbia. The approach involved (1) preparing models that described the general climate of British Columbia, (2) developing population-specific response functions driven by predicted climate variables, (3) developing general transfer functions that predict performance from the climatic distances over which populations were transferred, and (4) interpreting the results in terms of niche breadth, effects of climate change on adaptedness of populations, and reforestation in a changing environment. Polynomial regression models used physiographic descriptors to predict seven climate variables from normalized records of 513 weather stations. Values of R2 ranged over 0.80–0.97 for thermal variables and 0.54–0.61 for precipitation variables. Validations with independent data from 45 stations were strong and suggested that the models were generally free of bias within the limits of the original data. Response functions describing the height or survival of each population were developed from quadratic regressions using predicted climate variables for each test site. Mean annual temperature and mean temperature in the coldest month were the most effective variables for predicting population height, while the ratio of summer temperature to summer moisture was the best predictor of survival. Validation of the response functions with independent data from two additional test sites produced values of R2 between actual and predicted values that were as high as 0.93 for height and 0.73 for survival. The results demonstrated that natural populations have different climatic optima but tend to occupy suboptimal environments. Nevertheless, the general transfer functions showed that optimal growth and survival of the species as a whole is associated with the null transfer distance. These seemingly anomalous results suggest that the same processes thought to determine the distribution of species control the distribution of genotypes within species: (1) environmental selection to produce a broad fundamental niche, and (2) density-dependent selection to produce a relatively narrow realized niche within which most populations are relegated to suboptimal environments. Consequently, the steep geographic clines typical of P. contorta seem to be driven more by density-dependent selection than by environmental selection. Asymmetric gene flow from the center of distribution toward the periphery is viewed as a primary regulator that provides the fuel for both environmental and density-dependent selection and thereby indirectly perpetuates suboptimality. The response functions predict that small changes in climate will greatly affect growth and survival of forest tree populations and, therefore, that maintaining contemporary forest productivities during global warming will require a wholesale redistribution of genotypes across the landscape. The response functions also provide the climatic bases to current reforestation guidelines and quantify the adjustments necessary for maintaining adaptedness in planted trees during periods of small (∼1°C) temporal temperature shifts.

@article{doi1018900012961519990690375grtcip20co2,
    author = "Rehfeldt, Gerald E. and Ying, Cheng and Spittlehouse, David L. and Hamilton, David A.",
    title = "GENETIC RESPONSES TO CLIMATE IN PINUS CONTORTA: NICHE BREADTH, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND REFORESTATION",
    year = "1999",
    journal = "Ecological Monographs",
    abstract = "Fundamental plant–environment relationships were revealed by analyses of 20-yr height and survival of 118 populations representing two subspecies of Pinus contorta growing in common gardens at 60 environmentally disparate test sites in British Columbia. The approach involved (1) preparing models that described the general climate of British Columbia, (2) developing population-specific response functions driven by predicted climate variables, (3) developing general transfer functions that predict performance from the climatic distances over which populations were transferred, and (4) interpreting the results in terms of niche breadth, effects of climate change on adaptedness of populations, and reforestation in a changing environment. Polynomial regression models used physiographic descriptors to predict seven climate variables from normalized records of 513 weather stations. Values of R2 ranged over 0.80–0.97 for thermal variables and 0.54–0.61 for precipitation variables. Validations with independent data from 45 stations were strong and suggested that the models were generally free of bias within the limits of the original data. Response functions describing the height or survival of each population were developed from quadratic regressions using predicted climate variables for each test site. Mean annual temperature and mean temperature in the coldest month were the most effective variables for predicting population height, while the ratio of summer temperature to summer moisture was the best predictor of survival. Validation of the response functions with independent data from two additional test sites produced values of R2 between actual and predicted values that were as high as 0.93 for height and 0.73 for survival. The results demonstrated that natural populations have different climatic optima but tend to occupy suboptimal environments. Nevertheless, the general transfer functions showed that optimal growth and survival of the species as a whole is associated with the null transfer distance. These seemingly anomalous results suggest that the same processes thought to determine the distribution of species control the distribution of genotypes within species: (1) environmental selection to produce a broad fundamental niche, and (2) density-dependent selection to produce a relatively narrow realized niche within which most populations are relegated to suboptimal environments. Consequently, the steep geographic clines typical of P. contorta seem to be driven more by density-dependent selection than by environmental selection. Asymmetric gene flow from the center of distribution toward the periphery is viewed as a primary regulator that provides the fuel for both environmental and density-dependent selection and thereby indirectly perpetuates suboptimality. The response functions predict that small changes in climate will greatly affect growth and survival of forest tree populations and, therefore, that maintaining contemporary forest productivities during global warming will require a wholesale redistribution of genotypes across the landscape. The response functions also provide the climatic bases to current reforestation guidelines and quantify the adjustments necessary for maintaining adaptedness in planted trees during periods of small (∼1°C) temporal temperature shifts.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0375:grtcip]2.0.co;2",
    doi = "10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0375:grtcip]2.0.co;2",
    openalex = "W2118374976",
    references = "doi101016s0065250408603190"
}

Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone‐depleting chemicals, it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuations so as to separate them from anthropogenic fluctuations in the climate record. Studying the responses of climate to volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand important radiative and dynamical processes that respond in the climate system to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, modeling the effects of volcanic eruptions helps us to improve climate models that are needed to study anthropogenic effects. Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e ‐folding residence time of about 1 year. Large ash particles fall out much quicker. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. By scattering some solar radiation back to space, the aerosols cool the surface, but by absorbing both solar and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the stratosphere. For a tropical eruption this heating is larger in the tropics than in the high latitudes, producing an enhanced pole‐to‐equator temperature gradient, especially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter this enhanced gradient produces a stronger polar vortex, and this stronger jet stream produces a characteristic stationary wave pattern of tropospheric circulation, resulting in winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents. This indirect advective effect on temperature is stronger than the radiative cooling effect that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric ozone, which lowers ultraviolet absorption and reduces the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere, but the net effect is still heating. Because this chemical effect depends on the presence of anthropogenic chlorine, it has only become important in recent decades. For a few days after an eruption the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much longer timescale, volcanic effects played a large role in interdecadal climate change of the Little Ice Age. There is no perfect index of past volcanism, but more ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica will improve the record. There is no evidence that volcanic eruptions produce El Niño events, but the climatic effects of El Niño and volcanic eruptions must be separated to understand the climatic response to each.

@article{doi1010291998rg000054,
    author = "Robock, Alan",
    title = "Volcanic eruptions and climate",
    year = "2000",
    journal = "Reviews of Geophysics",
    abstract = "Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone‐depleting chemicals, it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuations so as to separate them from anthropogenic fluctuations in the climate record. Studying the responses of climate to volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand important radiative and dynamical processes that respond in the climate system to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, modeling the effects of volcanic eruptions helps us to improve climate models that are needed to study anthropogenic effects. Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e ‐folding residence time of about 1 year. Large ash particles fall out much quicker. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. By scattering some solar radiation back to space, the aerosols cool the surface, but by absorbing both solar and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the stratosphere. For a tropical eruption this heating is larger in the tropics than in the high latitudes, producing an enhanced pole‐to‐equator temperature gradient, especially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter this enhanced gradient produces a stronger polar vortex, and this stronger jet stream produces a characteristic stationary wave pattern of tropospheric circulation, resulting in winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents. This indirect advective effect on temperature is stronger than the radiative cooling effect that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric ozone, which lowers ultraviolet absorption and reduces the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere, but the net effect is still heating. Because this chemical effect depends on the presence of anthropogenic chlorine, it has only become important in recent decades. For a few days after an eruption the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much longer timescale, volcanic effects played a large role in interdecadal climate change of the Little Ice Age. There is no perfect index of past volcanism, but more ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica will improve the record. There is no evidence that volcanic eruptions produce El Niño events, but the climatic effects of El Niño and volcanic eruptions must be separated to understand the climatic response to each.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/1998rg000054",
    doi = "10.1029/1998rg000054",
    openalex = "W1982846260",
    references = "doi101029jc087ic02p01231, doi101029jd093id08p09341, doi101098rsta19700010, doi101126science22246301283"
}

Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.

@article{doi101126science2895477270,
    author = "Crowley, Thomas J.",
    title = "Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years",
    year = "2000",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64\% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.270",
    doi = "10.1126/science.289.5477.270",
    openalex = "W2130256070",
    references = "dansgaard1985dating, doi1010160033589478900649, doi101017s0033822200013874, doi1010291999gl900070, doi1010291999rg900002, doi10102995gl03093, doi10102995jd03410, doi10103833859, doi101126science27853411251, doi1015259780520947931, openalexw1759145845"
}

The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

@article{doi101126science2895477284,
    author = "Vörösmarty, Charles J and Green, Pamela and Salisbury, J. and Lammers, Richard B.",
    title = "Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth",
    year = "2000",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284",
    doi = "10.1126/science.289.5477.284",
    openalex = "W2060680089"
}

Long‐term measurements by the AERONET program of spectral aerosol optical depth, precipitable water, and derived Angstrom exponent were analyzed and compiled into an aerosol optical properties climatology. Quality assured monthly means are presented and described for 9 primary sites and 21 additional multiyear sites with distinct aerosol regimes representing tropical biomass burning, boreal forests, midlatitude humid climates, midlatitude dry climates, oceanic sites, desert sites, and background sites. Seasonal trends for each of these nine sites are discussed and climatic averages presented.

@article{doi1010292001jd900014,
    author = "Holben, B. N. and Tanré, D. and Smirnov, A. and Eck, T. F. and Slutsker, I. and Abuhassan, Nader and Newcomb, W. W. and Schafer, J. S. and Chatenet, B. and Lavenu, F. and Kaufman, Yoram J. and Castle, J. Vande and Setzer, Alberto and Markham, Brian L. and Clark, Dennis and Frouin, Robert and Halthore, R. N. and Karneli, A. and O’Neill, N. T. and Pietras, Christophe and Pinker, R. T. and Voss, Kenneth J. and Zibordi, Giuseppe",
    title = "An emerging ground‐based aerosol climatology: Aerosol optical depth from AERONET",
    year = "2001",
    journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres",
    abstract = "Long‐term measurements by the AERONET program of spectral aerosol optical depth, precipitable water, and derived Angstrom exponent were analyzed and compiled into an aerosol optical properties climatology. Quality assured monthly means are presented and described for 9 primary sites and 21 additional multiyear sites with distinct aerosol regimes representing tropical biomass burning, boreal forests, midlatitude humid climates, midlatitude dry climates, oceanic sites, desert sites, and background sites. Seasonal trends for each of these nine sites are discussed and climatic averages presented.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd900014",
    doi = "10.1029/2001jd900014",
    openalex = "W2012247153",
    references = "doi101016c20130050074, doi101016s0034425700001097, doi101016s0034425798000315, doi1010291999jd900923, doi10102996jd03680, doi10102997jd01496, doi10102998jd00458, doi1011751520045019720110283tlsmos20co2, doi1011751520047719990802229rsotaf20co2, openalexw1538205139"
}

A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in Antarctica preceded the onset of Greenland warmings by 1500 to 3000 years. In general, Antarctic temperatures increased gradually while Greenland temperatures were decreasing or constant, and the termination of Antarctic warming was apparently coincident with the onset of rapid warming in Greenland. This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales.

@article{doi101126science2915501109,
    author = "Blunier, Thomas and Brook, Edward J.",
    title = "Timing of Millennial-Scale Climate Change in Antarctica and Greenland During the Last Glacial Period",
    year = "2001",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = {A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in Antarctica preceded the onset of Greenland warmings by 1500 to 3000 years. In general, Antarctic temperatures increased gradually while Greenland temperatures were decreasing or constant, and the termination of Antarctic warming was apparently coincident with the onset of rapid warming in Greenland. This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales.},
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.291.5501.109",
    doi = "10.1126/science.291.5501.109",
    openalex = "W2099667979",
    references = "doi1010160277379187900035, doi101038235429a0, doi101038329403a0"
}

Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so differentiated, with environmental sensitivities of populations throughout the range evolving in conjunction with migrations. Rapid climate changes challenge this process by imposing stronger selection and by distancing populations from environments to which they are adapted. The unprecedented rates of climate changes anticipated to occur in the future, coupled with land use changes that impede gene flow, can be expected to disrupt the interplay of adaptation and migration, likely affecting productivity and threatening the persistence of many species.

@article{doi101126science2925517673,
    author = "Davis, Margaret B. and Shaw, Ruth G.",
    title = "Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to Quaternary Climate Change",
    year = "2001",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so differentiated, with environmental sensitivities of populations throughout the range evolving in conjunction with migrations. Rapid climate changes challenge this process by imposing stronger selection and by distancing populations from environments to which they are adapted. The unprecedented rates of climate changes anticipated to occur in the future, coupled with land use changes that impede gene flow, can be expected to disrupt the interplay of adaptation and migration, likely affecting productivity and threatening the persistence of many species.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.292.5517.673",
    doi = "10.1126/science.292.5517.673",
    openalex = "W1967161447",
    references = "doi1010079781441987488, doi10103835016000, doi101046j136526991996d01221x, doi101086286054, doi101098rstb19960112, doi10166600948373200026194roppac20co2, doi1018900012961519990690375grtcip20co2, doi1023071313224, doi1023071941558, doi1023072395303"
}

@article{doi101002joc846,
    author = "Lloyd‐Hughes, Benjamin and Saunders, Mark A.",
    title = "A drought climatology for Europe",
    year = "2002",
    journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.846",
    doi = "10.1002/joc.846",
    openalex = "W1996836686",
    references = "doi101017cbo9780511612336, doi10106314822961, doi10108002508068508686328, doi1011751520044220000132217rtcstc20co2, doi1011751520045019840231100tpdsil20co2, doi1011751520047719990800429mtduts20co2, doi1023071271312, doi1023072669798, openalexw1567561872, openalexw2153179024"
}

Climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by the SH annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex. We present evidence that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. It is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses. During the summer-fall season, the trend toward stronger circumpolar flow has contributed substantially to the observed warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia and to the cooling over eastern Antarctica and the Antarctic plateau.

@article{doi101126science1069270,
    author = "Thompson, David W. J. and Solomon, Susan",
    title = "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change",
    year = "2002",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by the SH annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex. We present evidence that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. It is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses. During the summer-fall season, the trend toward stronger circumpolar flow has contributed substantially to the observed warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia and to the cooling over eastern Antarctica and the Antarctic plateau.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069270",
    doi = "10.1126/science.1069270",
    openalex = "W2080192596"
}

Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

@article{doi10230720033020,
    author = "Cooper, Richard N. and Houghton, J. T. and McCarthy, James J. and Metz, Bert",
    title = "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis",
    year = "2002",
    journal = "Foreign Affairs",
    abstract = "Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.2307/20033020",
    doi = "10.2307/20033020",
    openalex = "W1522296012"
}

ABSTRACT Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale‐dependent context.

@article{doi101046j1466822x200300042x,
    author = "Pearson, Richard G. and Dawson, Terence P.",
    title = "Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?",
    year = "2003",
    journal = "Global Ecology and Biogeography",
    abstract = "ABSTRACT Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale‐dependent context.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2003.00042.x",
    doi = "10.1046/j.1466-822x.2003.00042.x",
    openalex = "W2163816695",
    references = "doi101046j13652699200100563x, doi101086419172, doi101126science28554311265, doi101126science2925517673, doi101146annurevecolsys271597, doi1023071933500, doi10230720033020"
}

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 latitude 2.5 longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products, including those at finer temporal resolution. The 23-yr GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

@article{doi1011751525754120030041147tvgpcp20co2,
    author = "Adler, R. F. and Huffman, George J. and Chang, A. T. C. and Ferraro, Ralph and Xie, Pingping and Janowiak, John E. and Rudolf, B. and Schneider, Udo and Curtis, Scott and Bolvin, David T. and Gruber, Arnold and Susskind, Joel and Arkin, Phillip A. and Nelkin, Eric",
    title = "The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)",
    year = "2003",
    journal = "Journal of Hydrometeorology",
    abstract = "The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 latitude 2.5 longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products, including those at finer temporal resolution. The 23-yr GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2",
    doi = "10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2",
    openalex = "W2022548072",
    references = "doi101002joc3370100202, doi1011751520044219890020268ppawth20co2, doi1011751520045020010401801teotgp20co2, doi1011751520045020010401965tsottr20co2, doi1011751520047719970780005tgpcpg20co2, doi1011751520047719970782539gpayma20co2, doi1011751520049319690970163atftep23co2, doi1011751520049319871150051trblsc20co2, doi1011751520049319871151606garspp20co2, doi1011751525754120010020036gpaodd20co2"
}

A new 2° resolution global climatology of the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on individual profiles is constructed. Previous global climatologies have been based on temperature or density‐gridded climatologies. The criterion selected is a threshold value of temperature or density from a near‐surface value at 10 m depth (Δ T = 0.2°C or Δσ θ = 0.03 kg m −3). A validation of the temperature criterion on moored time series data shows that the method is successful at following the base of the mixed layer. In particular, the first spring restratification is better captured than with a more commonly used larger criteria. In addition, we show that for a given 0.2°C criterion, the MLD estimated from averaged profiles results in a shallow bias of 25% compared to the MLD estimated from individual profiles. A new global seasonal estimation of barrier layer thickness is also provided. An interesting result is the prevalence in mid‐ and high‐latitude winter hemispheres of vertically density‐compensated layers, creating an isopycnal but not mixed layer. Consequently, we propose an optimal estimate of MLD based on both temperature and density data. An independent validation of the maximum annual MLD with oxygen data shows that this oxygen estimate may be biased in regions of Ekman pumping or strong biological activity. Significant differences are shown compared to previous climatologies. The timing of the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer is shifted earlier in the year, and the maximum MLD captures finer structures and is shallower. These results are discussed in light of the different approaches and the choice of criterion.

@article{doi1010292004jc002378,
    author = "de Boyer Montégut, Clément and Madec, Gurvan and Fischer, Albert and Lazar, Alban and Iudicone, Daniele",
    title = "Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile‐based climatology",
    year = "2004",
    journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres",
    abstract = "A new 2° resolution global climatology of the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on individual profiles is constructed. Previous global climatologies have been based on temperature or density‐gridded climatologies. The criterion selected is a threshold value of temperature or density from a near‐surface value at 10 m depth (Δ T = 0.2°C or Δσ θ = 0.03 kg m −3). A validation of the temperature criterion on moored time series data shows that the method is successful at following the base of the mixed layer. In particular, the first spring restratification is better captured than with a more commonly used larger criteria. In addition, we show that for a given 0.2°C criterion, the MLD estimated from averaged profiles results in a shallow bias of 25\% compared to the MLD estimated from individual profiles. A new global seasonal estimation of barrier layer thickness is also provided. An interesting result is the prevalence in mid‐ and high‐latitude winter hemispheres of vertically density‐compensated layers, creating an isopycnal but not mixed layer. Consequently, we propose an optimal estimate of MLD based on both temperature and density data. An independent validation of the maximum annual MLD with oxygen data shows that this oxygen estimate may be biased in regions of Ekman pumping or strong biological activity. Significant differences are shown compared to previous climatologies. The timing of the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer is shifted earlier in the year, and the maximum MLD captures finer structures and is shallower. These results are discussed in light of the different approaches and the choice of criterion.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002378",
    doi = "10.1029/2004jc002378",
    openalex = "W2069197937",
    references = "doi1010160079661195000151, doi101016096706379500068h, doi1010160967065394917361, doi1010292000jc900072, doi1010292001jc000907, doi10102990jc01951, doi10102992jc00407, doi101029eo064i049p0096202, doi101029jc091ic07p08411, doi105860choice320321"
}

Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic’s response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of centuryand multidecadal-scale observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice is used in combination with ECHAM4 and HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean global model simulations in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability. We show that two pronounced twentieth-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two decades is distinct from the early twentieth-century warm period. It is suggested strongly that the earlier warming was natural internal climate-system variability, whereas the recent SAT changes are a response to anthropogenic forcing. The area of arctic sea ice is furthermore observed to have decreased~8 · 105 km2 (7.4%) in the past quarter century, with record-low summer ice coverage in September 2002. A set of model predictions is used to quantify changes in the ice cover through the twenty-first century, with greater reductions expected in summer than winter. In summer, a predominantly sea-ice-free Arctic is predicted for the end of this century.

@article{doi101111j16000870200400060x,
    author = "Johannessen, Ola M. and Bengtsson, Lennart and Miles, Martin W. and Kuzmina, Svetlana I. and Семенов, В. А. and Алексеев, Г. В. and Nagurnyi, A. P. and Zakharov, V. F. and Bobylev, Leonid and Pettersson, Lasse H. and Hasselmann, Klaus and Cattle, H.",
    title = "Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability",
    year = "2004",
    journal = "Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography",
    abstract = "Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic’s response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of centuryand multidecadal-scale observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice is used in combination with ECHAM4 and HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean global model simulations in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability. We show that two pronounced twentieth-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two decades is distinct from the early twentieth-century warm period. It is suggested strongly that the earlier warming was natural internal climate-system variability, whereas the recent SAT changes are a response to anthropogenic forcing. The area of arctic sea ice is furthermore observed to have decreased\textasciitilde 8 · 105 km2 (7.4\%) in the past quarter century, with record-low summer ice coverage in September 2002. A set of model predictions is used to quantify changes in the ice cover through the twenty-first century, with greater reductions expected in summer than winter. In summer, a predominantly sea-ice-free Arctic is predicted for the end of this century.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00060.x",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00060.x",
    openalex = "W1987097354"
}

The climate of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is the most rapidly changing in the Southern Hemisphere, with a rise in atmospheric temperature of nearly 3°C since 1951 and associated cryospheric impacts. We demonstrate here, for the first time, that the adjacent ocean showed profound coincident changes, with surface summer temperatures rising more than 1°C and a strong upper‐layer salinification. Initially driven by atmospheric warming and reduced rates of sea ice production, these changes constitute positive feedbacks that will contribute significantly to the continued climate change. Marine species in this region have extreme sensitivities to their environment, with population and species removal predicted in response to very small increases in ocean temperature. The WAP region is an important breeding and nursery ground for Antarctic krill, a key species in the Southern Ocean foodweb with a known dependence on the physical environment. The changes observed thus have significant ecological implications.

@article{doi1010292005gl024042,
    author = "Meredith, Michael P. and King, John",
    title = "Rapid climate change in the ocean west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century",
    year = "2005",
    journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
    abstract = "The climate of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is the most rapidly changing in the Southern Hemisphere, with a rise in atmospheric temperature of nearly 3°C since 1951 and associated cryospheric impacts. We demonstrate here, for the first time, that the adjacent ocean showed profound coincident changes, with surface summer temperatures rising more than 1°C and a strong upper‐layer salinification. Initially driven by atmospheric warming and reduced rates of sea ice production, these changes constitute positive feedbacks that will contribute significantly to the continued climate change. Marine species in this region have extreme sensitivities to their environment, with population and species removal predicted in response to very small increases in ocean temperature. The WAP region is an important breeding and nursery ground for Antarctic krill, a key species in the Southern Ocean foodweb with a known dependence on the physical environment. The changes observed thus have significant ecological implications.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl024042",
    doi = "10.1029/2005gl024042",
    openalex = "W2046607706",
    references = "doi101002joc1130"
}

Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximately 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.

@article{doi101073pnas0409902102,
    author = "Thuiller, Wilfried and Lavorel, Sandra and Araújo, Miguel B. and Sykes, Martin T. and Prentice, I. Colin",
    title = "Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe",
    year = "2005",
    journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
    abstract = "Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42\% and 45-63\% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86\% and 17-86\%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximately 60\% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0409902102",
    doi = "10.1073/pnas.0409902102",
    openalex = "W2157641482",
    references = "doi1010079783642980183, doi101038nature02808, doi101046j13652486200300569x, doi101126science28554311265, openalexw1564371012"
}

Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged. We review recent findings from the fossil record, phylogeography and ecology to illustrate that rear edge populations are often disproportionately important for the survival and evolution of biota. Their ecological features, dynamics and conservation requirements differ from those of populations in other parts of the range, and some commonly recommended conservation practices might therefore be of little use or even counterproductive for rear edge populations.

@article{doi101111j14610248200500739x,
    author = "Hampe, Arndt and Petit, Rémy J.",
    title = "Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters",
    year = "2005",
    journal = "Ecology Letters",
    abstract = "Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged. We review recent findings from the fossil record, phylogeography and ecology to illustrate that rear edge populations are often disproportionately important for the survival and evolution of biota. Their ecological features, dynamics and conservation requirements differ from those of populations in other parts of the range, and some commonly recommended conservation practices might therefore be of little use or even counterproductive for rear edge populations.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x",
    openalex = "W2101977959",
    references = "doi10103819297, doi10103821181, doi10103835016000, doi10103847487, doi101038nature01286, doi101038nature02121, doi101046j14610248200200297x, doi101098rstb20031388, doi101126science1083264, doi101126science2925517673, doi101146annurevecolsys271597, doi101146annurevecolsys32081501114037, doi101890024045"
}

A gridded hourly precipitation dataset for Switzerland using rain-gauge analysis and radar-based disaggregation

@article{doi101002issn10970088,
    author = "Climatol, Int J. and Interscience, Published Online In Wiley and Zerefosc, C. and Repapisb, C.",
    title = "International Journal of Climatology",
    year = "2006",
    journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
    abstract = "A gridded hourly precipitation dataset for Switzerland using rain-gauge analysis and radar-based disaggregation",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/(issn)1097-0088",
    doi = "10.1002/(issn)1097-0088",
    openalex = "W4231746097"
}

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.

@article{doi101146annurevecolsys37091305110100,
    author = "Parmesan, Camille",
    title = "Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change",
    year = "2006",
    journal = "Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics",
    abstract = "Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100",
    doi = "10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100",
    openalex = "W2135858501",
    references = "doi1010160169534794902488, doi10103835079180, doi101038369448a0, doi101038382146a0, doi101038386698a0, doi101038nature01286, doi101038nature04095, doi101038nature04246, doi101071mf99078, doi101093aesa492190, doi101126science28954872068, doi101126science2925517673, doi1023071939337, doi1023071940431, doi105860choice301495, openalexw1500291103, openalexw2151235472"
}

In this paper we summarize recent research in geocryological studies carried out on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau that show responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental implications. Long‐term temperature measurements indicate that the lower altitudinal limit of permafrost has moved up by 25 m in the north during the last 30 years and between 50 and 80 m in the south over the last 20 years. Furthermore, the thickness of the active layer has increased by 0.15 to 0.50 m and ground temperature at a depth of 6 m has risen by about 0.1° to 0.3°C between 1996 and 2001. Recent studies show that freeze‐thaw cycles in the ground intensify the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ground surface. The greater the moisture content in the soil, the greater is the influence of freeze‐thaw cycling on heat exchange. The water and heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ground surface due to soil freezing and thawing has a significant influence on the climate in eastern Asia. A negative correlation exists between soil moisture and heat balance on the plateau and the amount of summer precipitation in most regions of China. A simple frozen soil parameterization scheme was developed to simulate the interaction between permafrost and climate change. This model, combined with the NCAR Community Climate Model 3.6, is suitable for the simulation of permafrost changes on the plateau. In addition, permafrost degradation is one of the main causes responsible for a dropping groundwater table at the source areas of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, which in turn results in lowering lake water levels, drying swamps and shrinking grasslands.

@article{doi1010292006jf000631,
    author = "Cheng, Guodong and Wu, Tonghua",
    title = "Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance, Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau",
    year = "2007",
    journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres",
    abstract = "In this paper we summarize recent research in geocryological studies carried out on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau that show responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental implications. Long‐term temperature measurements indicate that the lower altitudinal limit of permafrost has moved up by 25 m in the north during the last 30 years and between 50 and 80 m in the south over the last 20 years. Furthermore, the thickness of the active layer has increased by 0.15 to 0.50 m and ground temperature at a depth of 6 m has risen by about 0.1° to 0.3°C between 1996 and 2001. Recent studies show that freeze‐thaw cycles in the ground intensify the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ground surface. The greater the moisture content in the soil, the greater is the influence of freeze‐thaw cycling on heat exchange. The water and heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ground surface due to soil freezing and thawing has a significant influence on the climate in eastern Asia. A negative correlation exists between soil moisture and heat balance on the plateau and the amount of summer precipitation in most regions of China. A simple frozen soil parameterization scheme was developed to simulate the interaction between permafrost and climate change. This model, combined with the NCAR Community Climate Model 3.6, is suitable for the simulation of permafrost changes on the plateau. In addition, permafrost degradation is one of the main causes responsible for a dropping groundwater table at the source areas of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, which in turn results in lowering lake water levels, drying swamps and shrinking grasslands.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jf000631",
    doi = "10.1029/2006jf000631",
    openalex = "W2111157073",
    references = "doi10103835073746, doi10108010889370802175895, doi101126science2344777689"
}

Summary for policymakers -- Technical summary -- Historical overview of climate change science -- Changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing -- Observations: atmospheric surface and climate change -- Observations: changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground -- Observations: ocean climate change and sea level -- Paleoclimate -- Coupling between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry -- Climate models and their evaluation -- Understanding and attributing climate change -- Global climate projections -- Regional climate projections -- Annex I: Glossary -- Annex II: Contributors to the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex III: Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex IV: Acronyms.

@book{openalexw1520428197,
    author = "Solomon, Susan L.",
    title = "Climate change 2007: the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",
    year = "2007",
    abstract = "Summary for policymakers -- Technical summary -- Historical overview of climate change science -- Changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing -- Observations: atmospheric surface and climate change -- Observations: changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground -- Observations: ocean climate change and sea level -- Paleoclimate -- Coupling between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry -- Climate models and their evaluation -- Understanding and attributing climate change -- Global climate projections -- Regional climate projections -- Annex I: Glossary -- Annex II: Contributors to the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex III: Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex IV: Acronyms.",
    openalex = "W1520428197"
}

This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.

@article{openalexw2939474406,
    author = "Solomon, Susan L. and Qin, Dahe and Manning, Martin and Marquis, Melinda and Averyt, Kristen and Tignor, Melinda and Miller, H. L. and Chen, Zhenlin",
    title = "Climate change 2007: the physical science basis",
    year = "2007",
    journal = "University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas)",
    abstract = "This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.",
    openalex = "W2939474406"
}

@article{cressey2008antarctica,
    author = "Cressey, Daniel",
    title = "Antarctica hit by climate change",
    year = "2008",
    journal = "Nature",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1038/news.2008.1195",
    doi = "10.1038/news.2008.1195",
    openalex = "W1987053130",
    references = "doi101038ngeo338, doi101038ngeo346"
}

@article{crossref2008antarctica,
    title = "Antarctica hit by climate change",
    year = "2008",
    journal = "Physics Today",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1063/pt.5.022833",
    doi = "10.1063/pt.5.022833",
    number = "11",
    openalex = "W4245543734",
    volume = "2008"
}

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

@article{doi101126science1155121,
    author = "Bonan, Gordon B.",
    title = "Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests",
    year = "2008",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121",
    doi = "10.1126/science.1155121",
    openalex = "W2022224360",
    references = "doi101017cbo9781107415379, doi101038nature03972, doi101073pnas0702737104, doi101126science1111772, doi101175jcli38001, doi105281zenodo7356334, openalexw1520428197, openalexw1905429483, openalexw2907110490, openalexw2939474406, openalexw75231382"
}

We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial (approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.

@article{doi101126science1163428,
    author = "Moritz, Craig and Patton, James L. and Conroy, Chris J. and Parra, Juan L. and White, Gary C. and Beissinger, Steven R.",
    title = "Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA",
    year = "2008",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial (approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1163428",
    doi = "10.1126/science.1163428",
    openalex = "W2009552537",
    references = "doi101126science1156831"
}

ABSTRACT Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as the associated ecosystem changes that occur with thawing. We show that accounting for C stored deep in the permafrost more than doubles previous high-latitude inventory estimates, with this new estimate equivalent to twice the atmospheric C pool. The thawing of permafrost with warming occurs both gradually and catastrophically, exposing organic C to microbial decomposition. Other aspects of ecosystem dynamics can be altered by climate change along with thawing permafrost, such as growing season length, plant growth rates and species composition, and ecosystem energy exchange. However, these processes do not appear to be able to compensate for C release from thawing permafrost, making it likely that the net effect of widespread permafrost thawing will be a positive feedback to a warming climate.

@article{doi101641b580807,
    author = "Schuur, Edward A. G. and Bockheim, James G. and Canadell, Josep G. and Euskirchen, E. S. and Field, Christopher B. and Goryachkin, S. V. and Hagemann, Stefan and Kuhry, Peter and Lafleur, Peter M. and Lee, Hanna and Mazhitova, G. G. and Nelson, Frederick E. and Rinke, Annette and Romanovsky, V. E. and Shiklomanov, N. I. and Tarnocai, C. and Venevsky, Sergey and Vogel, Jason G. and Zimov, Sergei A.",
    title = "Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle",
    year = "2008",
    journal = "BioScience",
    abstract = "ABSTRACT Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as the associated ecosystem changes that occur with thawing. We show that accounting for C stored deep in the permafrost more than doubles previous high-latitude inventory estimates, with this new estimate equivalent to twice the atmospheric C pool. The thawing of permafrost with warming occurs both gradually and catastrophically, exposing organic C to microbial decomposition. Other aspects of ecosystem dynamics can be altered by climate change along with thawing permafrost, such as growing season length, plant growth rates and species composition, and ecosystem energy exchange. However, these processes do not appear to be able to compensate for C release from thawing permafrost, making it likely that the net effect of widespread permafrost thawing will be a positive feedback to a warming climate.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1641/b580807",
    doi = "10.1641/b580807",
    openalex = "W2159200641",
    references = "doi101002ppp582, doi101016s1040618201000830, doi101017cbo9780511546013, doi101023a1005667424292, doi1010292006gl027484, doi101038386698a0, doi101038nature04514, doi101073pnas0400522101, doi101073pnas0702737104, doi10108010889370802175895, doi101126science1077445, doi101126science1082750, doi101126science1128908, doi101126science1142924, doi101175jcli38001, doi1018901051076120000100423tvdoso20co2, doi1023071941811, openalexw1520428197"
}

The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator-prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.

@article{doi101111j15231739200901237x,
    author = "Xu, Jianchu and Grumbine, R. Edward and Shrestha, A. B. and Eriksson, Mats and Yang, Xuefei and Wang, Yun and Wilkes, Andreas",
    title = "The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods",
    year = "2009",
    journal = "Conservation Biology",
    abstract = "The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator-prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01237.x",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01237.x",
    openalex = "W2027995511",
    references = "doi101007354027365412, doi101126science1156831, openalexw2953347398"
}

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO 2 and CH 4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO 2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH 4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH 4 /yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts.

@article{doi1018900820251,
    author = "McGuire, A. David and Anderson, Leif G. and Christensen, Torben R. and Dallimore, S R and Guo, Laodong and Hayes, Daniel J. and Heimann, Martin and Lorenson, Thomas D. and Macdonald, Robie W. and Roulet, Nigel T.",
    title = "Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change",
    year = "2009",
    journal = "Ecological Monographs",
    abstract = "The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO 2 and CH 4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO 2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0\% and 25\% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH 4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH 4 /yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2025.1",
    doi = "10.1890/08-2025.1",
    openalex = "W2137745363",
    references = "doi101007bf00002772, doi101007s1002100690138, doi101007s1058400553522, doi101016jgloplacha200607028, doi1010292006gl027484, doi10102993gb02263, doi10102994gb00766, doi10103835041539, doi101046j13652486200300569x, doi101080014311600210191, doi10108010889370802175895, doi101111j136523891996tb01386x, doi101111j13652486200601128x, doi101126science1077445, doi101126science1128908, doi101126science2514991298, doi101126science26551781568, doi101175jcli38001, doi101641b580807, doi1018901051076120000100423tvdoso20co2, doi1023071941811, doi105860choice455008"
}

Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change. This paper integrates perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps. End users need a reliable representation of precipitation intensities and temporal and spatial variability, as well as physical consistency, independent of region and season. In addition to presenting dynamical downscaling, we review perfect prognosis statistical downscaling, model output statistics, and weather generators, focusing on recent developments to improve the representation of space-time variability. Furthermore, evaluation techniques to assess downscaling skill are presented. Downscaling adds considerable value to projections from global climate models. Remaining gaps are uncertainties arising from sparse data; representation of extreme summer precipitation, subdaily precipitation, and full precipitation fields on fine scales; capturing changes in small-scale processes and their feedback on large scales; and errors inherited from the driving global climate model.

@article{doi1010292009rg000314,
    author = "Maraun, Douglas and Wetterhall, Fredrik and Ireson, Andrew and Chandler, Richard E. and Kendon, Elizabeth and Widmann, Martin and Brienen, Susanne and Rust, Henning W. and Sauter, Tobias and Themeßl, Matthias and Venema, Victor and Chun, Kwok Pan and Goodess, C. M. and Jones, Richard and Onof, Christian and Vrac, Mathieu and Thiele-Eich, Insa",
    title = "Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user",
    year = "2010",
    journal = "Reviews of Geophysics",
    abstract = "Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change. This paper integrates perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps. End users need a reliable representation of precipitation intensities and temporal and spatial variability, as well as physical consistency, independent of region and season. In addition to presenting dynamical downscaling, we review perfect prognosis statistical downscaling, model output statistics, and weather generators, focusing on recent developments to improve the representation of space-time variability. Furthermore, evaluation techniques to assess downscaling skill are presented. Downscaling adds considerable value to projections from global climate models. Remaining gaps are uncertainties arising from sparse data; representation of extreme summer precipitation, subdaily precipitation, and full precipitation fields on fine scales; capturing changes in small-scale processes and their feedback on large scales; and errors inherited from the driving global climate model.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2009rg000314",
    doi = "10.1029/2009rg000314",
    openalex = "W2172191993",
    references = "doi101002joc2168, doi101002sici1097008819980630188873aidjoc25530co29, doi1010079781489945419, doi101023a1008929526011, doi1010292000jd900719, doi1010292008jd010201, doi10108001621459196310500845, doi1011751520044219920050541aiomff20co2, doi1011751520047719960770437tnyrp20co2, doi1012019780429246593, doi1023071271312, doi1023072532174, doi1023072669798, doi105281zenodo7356334, openalexw1520428197, openalexw2127218421, openalexw2939474406"
}

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the 'knowns' but also 'unknowns' resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.

@article{doi101098rstb20100021,
    author = "Walther, Gian‐Reto",
    title = "Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change",
    year = "2010",
    journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences",
    abstract = "There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the 'knowns' but also 'unknowns' resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0021",
    doi = "10.1098/rstb.2010.0021",
    openalex = "W2145638163",
    references = "doi101126science1156831"
}

Abstract This article highlights how the loose definition of the term ‘refugia’ has led to discrepancies in methods used to assess the vulnerability of species to the current trend of rising global temperatures. The term ‘refugia’ is commonly used without distinguishing between macrorefugia and microrefugia, ex situ refugia and in situ refugia, glacial and interglacial refugia or refugia based on habitat stability and refugia based on climatic stability. It is not always clear which definition is being used, and this makes it difficult to assess the appropriateness of the methods employed. For example, it is crucial to develop accurate fine‐scale climate grids when identifying microrefugia, but coarse‐scale macroclimate might be adequate for determining macrorefugia. Similarly, identifying in situ refugia might be more appropriate for species with poor dispersal ability but this may overestimate the extinction risk for good dispersers. More care needs to be taken to properly define the context when referring to refugia from climate change so that the validity of methods and the conservation significance of refugia can be assessed.

@article{doi101111j13652699201002300x,
    author = "Ashcroft, Michael B.",
    title = "Identifying refugia from climate change",
    year = "2010",
    journal = "Journal of Biogeography",
    abstract = "Abstract This article highlights how the loose definition of the term ‘refugia’ has led to discrepancies in methods used to assess the vulnerability of species to the current trend of rising global temperatures. The term ‘refugia’ is commonly used without distinguishing between macrorefugia and microrefugia, ex situ refugia and in situ refugia, glacial and interglacial refugia or refugia based on habitat stability and refugia based on climatic stability. It is not always clear which definition is being used, and this makes it difficult to assess the appropriateness of the methods employed. For example, it is crucial to develop accurate fine‐scale climate grids when identifying microrefugia, but coarse‐scale macroclimate might be adequate for determining macrorefugia. Similarly, identifying in situ refugia might be more appropriate for species with poor dispersal ability but this may overestimate the extinction risk for good dispersers. More care needs to be taken to properly define the context when referring to refugia from climate change so that the validity of methods and the conservation significance of refugia can be assessed.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x",
    openalex = "W1654094121",
    references = "doi101098rspb20091272"
}

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

@article{doi101126science1184695,
    author = "Sinervo, Barry and Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto and Miles, Donald B. and Heulin, Benoı̂t and Bastiaans, Elizabeth and Cruz, Maricela Villagrán‐Santa and Lara‐Reséndiz, Rafael A. and Martínez‐Méndez, Norberto and Calderón‐Espinosa, Martha L. and Meza-Lázaro, Rubí N. and Gadsden, Héctor and Ávila, Luciano Javier and Morando, Mariana and la Riva, Ignacio De and Sepúlveda, Pedro Victoriano and Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte and Ibargüengoytía, Nora R. and Aguilar, César and Massot, M. and Lepetz, Virginie and Oksanen, Tuula A. and Chapple, David G. and Bauer, Aaron M. and Branch, William R. and Clobert, Jean and Sites, Jack W.",
    title = "Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches",
    year = "2010",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12\% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4\% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39\% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20\%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184695",
    doi = "10.1126/science.1184695",
    openalex = "W2017677393",
    references = "doi101073pnas0709472105, doi101086346135, doi101093icb191357, doi101098rspb20081957"
}

Physiological studies can help predict effects of climate change through determining which species currently live closest to their upper thermal tolerance limits, which physiological systems set these limits, and how species differ in acclimatization capacities for modifying their thermal tolerances. Reductionist studies at the molecular level can contribute to this analysis by revealing how much change in sequence is needed to adapt proteins to warmer temperatures--thus providing insights into potential rates of adaptive evolution--and determining how the contents of genomes--protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms--influence capacities for adapting to acute and long-term increases in temperature. Studies of congeneric invertebrates from thermally stressful rocky intertidal habitats have shown that warm-adapted congeners are most susceptible to local extinctions because their acute upper thermal limits (LT(50) values) lie near current thermal maxima and their abilities to increase thermal tolerance through acclimation are limited. Collapse of cardiac function may underlie acute and longer-term thermal limits. Local extinctions from heat death may be offset by in-migration of genetically warm-adapted conspecifics from mid-latitude 'hot spots', where midday low tides in summer select for heat tolerance. A single amino acid replacement is sufficient to adapt a protein to a new thermal range. More challenging to adaptive evolution are lesions in genomes of stenotherms like Antarctic marine ectotherms, which have lost protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms needed for coping with rising temperature. These extreme stenotherms, along with warm-adapted eurytherms living near their thermal limits, may be the major 'losers' from climate change.

@article{doi101242jeb037473,
    author = "Somero, George N.",
    title = "The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine ‘winners’ and ‘losers’",
    year = "2010",
    journal = "Journal of Experimental Biology",
    abstract = "Physiological studies can help predict effects of climate change through determining which species currently live closest to their upper thermal tolerance limits, which physiological systems set these limits, and how species differ in acclimatization capacities for modifying their thermal tolerances. Reductionist studies at the molecular level can contribute to this analysis by revealing how much change in sequence is needed to adapt proteins to warmer temperatures--thus providing insights into potential rates of adaptive evolution--and determining how the contents of genomes--protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms--influence capacities for adapting to acute and long-term increases in temperature. Studies of congeneric invertebrates from thermally stressful rocky intertidal habitats have shown that warm-adapted congeners are most susceptible to local extinctions because their acute upper thermal limits (LT(50) values) lie near current thermal maxima and their abilities to increase thermal tolerance through acclimation are limited. Collapse of cardiac function may underlie acute and longer-term thermal limits. Local extinctions from heat death may be offset by in-migration of genetically warm-adapted conspecifics from mid-latitude 'hot spots', where midday low tides in summer select for heat tolerance. A single amino acid replacement is sufficient to adapt a protein to a new thermal range. More challenging to adaptive evolution are lesions in genomes of stenotherms like Antarctic marine ectotherms, which have lost protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms needed for coping with rising temperature. These extreme stenotherms, along with warm-adapted eurytherms living near their thermal limits, may be the major 'losers' from climate change.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.037473",
    doi = "10.1242/jeb.037473",
    openalex = "W2123111228",
    references = "doi101073pnas0709472105"
}

@article{ogilvie2010historical,
    author = "Ogilvie, A. E. J.",
    title = "Historical climatology, Climatic Change, and implications for climate science in the twenty-first century",
    year = "2010",
    journal = "Climatic Change",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9854-1",
    doi = "10.1007/s10584-010-9854-1",
    number = "1",
    openalex = "W2014015258",
    pages = "33-47",
    volume = "100",
    references = "doi101002qj49710042511, doi101016016041209190291w, doi1010291999gl900070, doi10103833859, doi101126science2895477270, doi1023071971875, doi10230740184705, openalexw1520428197, openalexw2068090847, openalexw2939474406"
}

[1] Since the early 1990s the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) data set has been an internationally recognized source of data for the study of observed variability and change in land surface temperature. It provides monthly mean temperature data for 7280 stations from 226 countries and territories, ongoing monthly updates of more than 2000 stations to support monitoring of current and evolving climate conditions, and homogeneity adjustments to remove non-climatic influences that can bias the observed temperature record. The release of version 3 monthly mean temperature data marks the first major revision to this data set in over ten years. It introduces a number of improvements and changes that include consolidating “duplicate” series, updating records from recent decades, and the use of new approaches to homogenization and quality assurance. Although the underlying structure of the data set is significantly different than version 2, conclusions regarding the rate of warming in global land surface temperature are largely unchanged.

@article{doi1010292011jd016187,
    author = "Lawrimore, J. H. and Menne, Matthew J. and Gleason, Byron E. and Williams, Claude N. and Wuertz, David B. and Vose, Russell S. and Rennie, Jared",
    title = "An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly mean temperature data set, version 3",
    year = "2011",
    journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres",
    abstract = "[1] Since the early 1990s the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) data set has been an internationally recognized source of data for the study of observed variability and change in land surface temperature. It provides monthly mean temperature data for 7280 stations from 226 countries and territories, ongoing monthly updates of more than 2000 stations to support monitoring of current and evolving climate conditions, and homogeneity adjustments to remove non-climatic influences that can bias the observed temperature record. The release of version 3 monthly mean temperature data marks the first major revision to this data set in over ten years. It introduces a number of improvements and changes that include consolidating “duplicate” series, updating records from recent decades, and the use of new approaches to homogenization and quality assurance. Although the underlying structure of the data set is significantly different than version 2, conclusions regarding the rate of warming in global land surface temperature are largely unchanged.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016187",
    doi = "10.1029/2011jd016187",
    openalex = "W1970940206"
}

ABSTRACT Aim Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation under projected anthropogenic climate change, because of their demonstrated ability to facilitate the survival of biota under adverse conditions. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions. However, the study and discussion of refugia has often been ad hoc and descriptive in nature. We therefore: (1) provide a habitat‐based concept of refugia, and (2) evaluate methods for the identification of refugia. Location Global. Methods We present a simple conceptual framework for refugia and examine the factors that describe them. We then demonstrate how different disciplines are contributing to our understanding of refugia, and the tools that they provide for identifying and quantifying refugia. Results Current understanding of refugia is largely based on Quaternary phylogeographic studies on organisms in North America and Europe during significant temperature fluctuations. This has resulted in gaps in our understanding of refugia, particularly when attempting to apply current theory to forecast anthropogenic climate change. Refugia are environmental habitats with space and time dimensions that operate on evolutionary time‐scales and have facilitated the survival of biota under changing environmental conditions for millennia. Therefore, they offer the best chances for survival under climate change for many taxa, making their identification important for conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Several methods from various disciplines provide viable options for achieving this goal. Main conclusions The framework developed for refugia allows the identification and description of refugia in any environment. Various methods provide important contributions but each is limited in scope; urging a more integrated approach to identify, define and conserve refugia. Such an approach will facilitate better understanding of refugia and their capacity to act as safe havens under projected anthropogenic climate change.

@article{doi101111j14668238201100686x,
    author = "Keppel, Gunnar and Niel, Kimberly P. Van and Wardell‐Johnson, Grant and Yates, Colin J. and Byrne, Margaret and Mucina, Ladislav and Schut, A.G.T. and Hopper, Stephen D. and Franklin, Steven E.",
    title = "Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change",
    year = "2011",
    journal = "Global Ecology and Biogeography",
    abstract = "ABSTRACT Aim Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation under projected anthropogenic climate change, because of their demonstrated ability to facilitate the survival of biota under adverse conditions. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions. However, the study and discussion of refugia has often been ad hoc and descriptive in nature. We therefore: (1) provide a habitat‐based concept of refugia, and (2) evaluate methods for the identification of refugia. Location Global. Methods We present a simple conceptual framework for refugia and examine the factors that describe them. We then demonstrate how different disciplines are contributing to our understanding of refugia, and the tools that they provide for identifying and quantifying refugia. Results Current understanding of refugia is largely based on Quaternary phylogeographic studies on organisms in North America and Europe during significant temperature fluctuations. This has resulted in gaps in our understanding of refugia, particularly when attempting to apply current theory to forecast anthropogenic climate change. Refugia are environmental habitats with space and time dimensions that operate on evolutionary time‐scales and have facilitated the survival of biota under changing environmental conditions for millennia. Therefore, they offer the best chances for survival under climate change for many taxa, making their identification important for conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Several methods from various disciplines provide viable options for achieving this goal. Main conclusions The framework developed for refugia allows the identification and description of refugia in any environment. Various methods provide important contributions but each is limited in scope; urging a more integrated approach to identify, define and conserve refugia. Such an approach will facilitate better understanding of refugia and their capacity to act as safe havens under projected anthropogenic climate change.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00686.x",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00686.x",
    openalex = "W1530451520",
    references = "doi101002joc1276, doi101016jquascirev200808032, doi101016jtree200602002, doi10103835012228, doi10103835016000, doi101049ep19770180, doi101073pnas0403618101, doi101098rstb20031388, doi101111j13652699201002416x, doi101111j1365294x200803899x, doi101111j14610248200500739x, doi101111j14610248200500792x, doi101146annurevecolsys110308120159, doi102307jctv1nzfgj7, doi105860choice375647"
}

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

@article{doi101111j14610248201101736x,
    author = "Bellard, Céline and Bertelsmeier, Cléo and Leadley, Paul and Thuiller, Wilfried and Courchamp, Franck",
    title = "Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity",
    year = "2012",
    journal = "Ecology Letters",
    abstract = "Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x",
    doi = "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x",
    openalex = "W2154433795",
    references = "doi101038nature02121, doi101038nature09678, doi101126science1152509, doi101146annurevecolsys102209144628"
}

Growing scientific evidence from modern climate science is loaded with implications for the environmental history of the Roman Empire and its successor societies. The written and archaeological evidence, although richer than commonly realized, is unevenly distributed over time and space. A first synthesis of what the written records and multiple natural archives (multi-proxy data) indicate about climate change and variability across western Eurasia from c. 100 b.c. to 800 a.d. confirms that the Roman Empire rose during a period of stable and favorable climatic conditions, which deteriorated during the Empire's third-century crisis. A second, briefer period of favorable conditions coincided with the Empire's recovery in the fourth century; regional differences in climate conditions parallel the diverging fates of the eastern and western Empires in subsequent centuries. Climate conditions beyond the Empire's boundaries also played an important role by affecting food production in the Nile valley, and by encouraging two major migrations and invasions of pastoral peoples from Central Asia.

@article{doi101162jinha00379,
    author = "McCormick, Michael and Büntgen, Ulf and Cane, Mark A. and Cook, Edward R. and Harper, Kyle and Huybers, Peter and Litt, Thomas and Manning, Sturt W. and Mayewski, Paul A. and More, Alexander and Nicolussi, Kurt and Tegel, Willy",
    title = "Climate Change during and after the Roman Empire: Reconstructing the Past from Scientific and Historical Evidence",
    year = "2012",
    journal = "The Journal of Interdisciplinary History",
    abstract = "Growing scientific evidence from modern climate science is loaded with implications for the environmental history of the Roman Empire and its successor societies. The written and archaeological evidence, although richer than commonly realized, is unevenly distributed over time and space. A first synthesis of what the written records and multiple natural archives (multi-proxy data) indicate about climate change and variability across western Eurasia from c. 100 b.c. to 800 a.d. confirms that the Roman Empire rose during a period of stable and favorable climatic conditions, which deteriorated during the Empire's third-century crisis. A second, briefer period of favorable conditions coincided with the Empire's recovery in the fourth century; regional differences in climate conditions parallel the diverging fates of the eastern and western Empires in subsequent centuries. Climate conditions beyond the Empire's boundaries also played an important role by affecting food production in the Nile valley, and by encouraging two major migrations and invasions of pastoral peoples from Central Asia.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1162/jinh\_a\_00379",
    doi = "10.1162/jinh\_a\_00379",
    openalex = "W2156130163",
    references = "doi101002issn10970088, doi101002joc1181, doi101016jquascirev200306021, doi101017chol9780521200929, doi101017s0033822200019123, doi101017s0033822200032999, doi1010292009rg000282, doi101038366552a0, doi101126science1065680, doi101126science1163965, doi101126science1197175, doi1043249780203433652"
}

Abstract A database is described that has been designed to fulfill the need for daily climate data over global land areas. The dataset, known as Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily, was developed for a wide variety of potential applications, including climate analysis and monitoring studies that require data at a daily time resolution (e.g., assessments of the frequency of heavy rainfall, heat wave duration, etc.). The dataset contains records from over 80 000 stations in 180 countries and territories, and its processing system produces the official archive for U.S. daily data. Variables commonly include maximum and minimum temperature, total daily precipitation, snowfall, and snow depth; however, about two-thirds of the stations report precipitation only. Quality assurance checks are routinely applied to the full dataset, but the data are not homogenized to account for artifacts associated with the various eras in reporting practice at any particular station (i.e., for changes in systematic bias). Daily updates are provided for many of the station records in GHCN-Daily. The dataset is also regularly reconstructed, usually once per week, from its 20+ data source components, ensuring that the dataset is broadly synchronized with its growing list of constituent sources. The daily updates and weekly reprocessed versions of GHCN-Daily are assigned a unique version number, and the most recent dataset version is provided on the GHCN-Daily website for free public access. Each version of the dataset is also archived at the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center in perpetuity for future retrieval.

@article{doi101175jtechd11001031,
    author = "Menne, Matthew J. and Durre, Imke and Vose, Russell S. and Gleason, Byron E. and Houston, Tamara G.",
    title = "An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database",
    year = "2012",
    journal = "Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology",
    abstract = "Abstract A database is described that has been designed to fulfill the need for daily climate data over global land areas. The dataset, known as Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily, was developed for a wide variety of potential applications, including climate analysis and monitoring studies that require data at a daily time resolution (e.g., assessments of the frequency of heavy rainfall, heat wave duration, etc.). The dataset contains records from over 80 000 stations in 180 countries and territories, and its processing system produces the official archive for U.S. daily data. Variables commonly include maximum and minimum temperature, total daily precipitation, snowfall, and snow depth; however, about two-thirds of the stations report precipitation only. Quality assurance checks are routinely applied to the full dataset, but the data are not homogenized to account for artifacts associated with the various eras in reporting practice at any particular station (i.e., for changes in systematic bias). Daily updates are provided for many of the station records in GHCN-Daily. The dataset is also regularly reconstructed, usually once per week, from its 20+ data source components, ensuring that the dataset is broadly synchronized with its growing list of constituent sources. The daily updates and weekly reprocessed versions of GHCN-Daily are assigned a unique version number, and the most recent dataset version is provided on the GHCN-Daily website for free public access. Each version of the dataset is also archived at the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center in perpetuity for future retrieval.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-11-00103.1",
    doi = "10.1175/jtech-d-11-00103.1",
    openalex = "W2029604816",
    references = "doi101002joc3370060607, doi101002joc3370100202, doi101002joc773, doi101007bf00866198, doi1010291998wr900018, doi1010292005jd006290, doi1010292011jd016187, doi101038nature09763, doi1011751520047719970782837aootgh20co2, openalexw2151455735"
}

@incollection{crossref2013climate,
    title = "Climate and climatic change",
    year = "2013",
    booktitle = "The Demography of Roman Italy",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511782305.005",
    doi = "10.1017/cbo9780511782305.005",
    openalex = "W2280826179",
    pages = "63-98",
    references = "openalexw1495495925"
}

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

@article{doi101007s0038201216361,
    author = "Dufresne, Jean‐Louis and Foujols, Marie‐Alice and Denvil, Sébastien and Caubel, Arnaud and Marti, Olivier and Aumont, Olivier and Balkanski, Yves and Bekki, Slimane and Bellenger, Hugo and Benshila, Rachid and Bony, Sandrine and Bopp, Laurent and Braconnot, Pascale and Brockmann, Patrick and Cadule, Patricia and Cheruy, Frédérique and Codron, Francis and Cozic, Anne and Cugnet, David and de Noblet, Nathalie and Duvel, J. P. and Éthé, Christian and Fairhead, Laurent and Fichefet, Thierry and Flavoni, Simona and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Grandpeix, Jean‐Yves and Guez, Lionel and Guilyardi, Éric and Hauglustaine, Didier and Hourdin, F. and Idelkadi, Abderrahmane and Ghattas, Joséfine and Joussaume, Sylvie and Kageyama, Masa and Krinner, Gerhard and Labetoulle, Sonia and Lahellec, A. and Lefebvre, Marie‐Pierre and Lefèvre, Franck and Lévy, Claire and Li, Laurent and Lloyd, J. and Lott, François and Madec, Gurvan and Mancip, Martial and Marchand, Marion and Masson, Sébastien and Meurdesoif, Yann and Mignot, Emmanuel and Musat, Ionela and Parouty, S. and Polcher‬, Jan and Rio, Catherine and Schulz, Michael and Swingedouw, Didier and Szopa, Sophie and Talandier, Claude and Terray, Pascal and Viovy, Nicolas and Vuichard, Nicolas",
    title = "Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5",
    year = "2013",
    journal = "Climate Dynamics",
    abstract = "We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1",
    doi = "10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1",
    openalex = "W1990376608",
    references = "doi101007bf00386231, doi101007s105840110148z, doi101007s105840110156z, doi1010292002jd002670, doi1010292003gb002199, doi10102992jc00188, doi101038nature08823, doi101038ngeo689, doi1011751520049319891171779acmfsf20co2, doi101175bamsd11000941, doi101175jcli39901, doi10230720033020, openalexw1575579655"
}

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities.

@article{doi101016jscitotenv201307050,
    author = "Gobiet, Andreas and Kotlarski, Sven and Beniston, Martin and Heinrich, Georg and Rajczak, Jan and Stoffel, Markus",
    title = "21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review",
    year = "2013",
    journal = "The Science of The Total Environment",
    abstract = "Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050",
    doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050",
    openalex = "W2066833596",
    references = "doi101002joc846, doi101002sici1097008819980630188873aidjoc25530co29, doi101017cbo9781139177245, doi101023a1005380714349, doi1010292006gl025734, doi1010292008jd010201, doi101038nature01092, doi101038nature02300, doi101175bams8891383, doi101175jcli39901, doi101175jhm3861, openalexw1621450917, openalexw2939474406"
}

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

@article{doi101073pnas1222465110,
    author = "Nelson, Gerald C. and Valin, Hugo and Sands, Ronald D. and Havlík, Peter and Ahammad, Helal and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Heyhoe, Edwina and Kyle, Page and von Lampe, Martin and Lotze‐Campen, Hermann and Mason-D’Croz, Daniel and van Meijl, Hans and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and Müller, Christoph and Popp, Alexander and Robertson, Richard and Robinson, Sherman and Schmid, Erwin and Schmitz, Christoph and Tabeau, Andrzej and Willenbockel, Dirk",
    title = "Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks",
    year = "2013",
    journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
    abstract = "Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17\% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11\%, increase area of major crops by 11\%, and reduce consumption by 3\%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222465110",
    doi = "10.1073/pnas.1222465110",
    openalex = "W2155380844",
    references = "doi101007s0038201216361, doi105194gmd45432011"
}

Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard–Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations.

@article{doi101016jquascirev201409007,
    author = "Rasmussen, Sune Olander and Bigler, Matthias and Blockley, Simon and Blunier, Thomas and Buchardt, S. L. and Clausen, Henrik and Cvijanović, Ivana and Dahl‐Jensen, Dorthe and Johnsen, S. J. and Fischer, Hubertus and Gkinis, Vasileios and Guillevic, Myriam and Hoek, Wim Z. and Lowe, J. John and Pedro, Joel B and Popp, Trevor and Seierstad, Inger K and Steffensen, J. P. and Svensson, Anders and Vallelonga, Paul and Vinther, Bo and Walker, Mike and Wheatley, J. J. and Winstrup, Mai",
    title = "A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy",
    year = "2014",
    journal = "Quaternary Science Reviews",
    abstract = "Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard–Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.007",
    doi = "10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.007",
    openalex = "W2007331923",
    references = "doi101002jqs1227, doi101002jqs2565, doi101002sici1099141719980708134283aidjqs38630co2a, doi1010160033589488900579, doi101016jquascirev200608002, doi1010292003rg000128, doi1010292005jd006079, doi10102996jc03365, doi10102997jc00880, doi10103829447, doi101038359311a0, doi101038360245a0, doi101038362527a0, doi101038364218a0, doi101038nature01690, doi101038nature02805, doi101038nature05301, doi101038nature08686, doi101038nature11789, doi101126science1157707, doi101126science2915501109, doi105194cp4472008"
}

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology and atmospheric chemistry. It provides invaluable material for decision makers and stakeholders: international, national, local; and in all branches: government, businesses, and NGOs. This volume provides: • An authoritative and unbiased overview of the physical science basis of climate change • A more extensive assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever before • New dedicated chapters on sea-level change, biogeochemical cycles, clouds and aerosols, and regional climate phenomena • A more extensive coverage of model projections, both near-term and long-term climate projections • A detailed assessment of climate change observations, modelling, and attribution for every continent • A new comprehensive atlas of global and regional climate projections for 35 regions of the world

@book{doi101017cbo9781107415324,
    author = "on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel",
    title = "Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis",
    year = "2014",
    booktitle = "Cambridge University Press eBooks",
    abstract = "This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology and atmospheric chemistry. It provides invaluable material for decision makers and stakeholders: international, national, local; and in all branches: government, businesses, and NGOs. This volume provides: • An authoritative and unbiased overview of the physical science basis of climate change • A more extensive assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever before • New dedicated chapters on sea-level change, biogeochemical cycles, clouds and aerosols, and regional climate phenomena • A more extensive coverage of model projections, both near-term and long-term climate projections • A detailed assessment of climate change observations, modelling, and attribution for every continent • A new comprehensive atlas of global and regional climate projections for 35 regions of the world",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415324",
    doi = "10.1017/cbo9781107415324",
    openalex = "W4213327538"
}

This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise.

@incollection{doi101017cbo9781107415324028,
    author = "on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel",
    title = "Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change",
    year = "2014",
    booktitle = "Cambridge University Press eBooks",
    abstract = "This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climates, contingent on global mean temperatures continue to rise.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415324.028",
    doi = "10.1017/cbo9781107415324.028",
    openalex = "W1599651335",
    references = "doi101002joc1130, doi101007s003820060115y"
}

This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues relevant to the ways in which natural scientists, historians and archaeologists may collaborate in the study of past climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin by discussing the methodologies of these three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, that is, attempts to unify different research methodologies that address similar problems. We demonstrate that there are a number of similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and the natural sciences that deal with the past (“palaeoenvironmental sciences”), due to their common interest in studying societal and environmental phenomena that no longer exist. The three research traditions, for instance, employ specific narrative structures as a means of communicating research results. We thus present and compare the narratives characteristic of each discipline; in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange, we must first understand how each deals with the societal impacts of climatic change. In the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences in publication cultures, and differing views on the impact of research. Among other recommendations, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim to create a joint publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both inside and outside of academia.

@article{doi101016jquascirev201510038,
    author = "Izdebski, Adam and Holmgren, Karin and Weiberg, Erika and Stocker, Sharon R. and Büntgen, Ulf and Florenzano, Assunta and Gogou, Alexandra and Leroy, Suzanne A. G. and Luterbacher, Jürg and Martrat, Belén and Masi, Alessia and Mercuri, Anna Maria and Montagna, Paolo and Sadori, Laura and Schneider, Adam W. and Sicre, Marie‐Alexandrine and Triantaphyllou, Maria and Xoplaki, Elena",
    title = "Realising consilience: How better communication between archaeologists, historians and natural scientists can transform the study of past climate change in the Mediterranean",
    year = "2015",
    journal = "Quaternary Science Reviews",
    abstract = "This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues relevant to the ways in which natural scientists, historians and archaeologists may collaborate in the study of past climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin by discussing the methodologies of these three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, that is, attempts to unify different research methodologies that address similar problems. We demonstrate that there are a number of similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and the natural sciences that deal with the past (“palaeoenvironmental sciences”), due to their common interest in studying societal and environmental phenomena that no longer exist. The three research traditions, for instance, employ specific narrative structures as a means of communicating research results. We thus present and compare the narratives characteristic of each discipline; in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange, we must first understand how each deals with the societal impacts of climatic change. In the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences in publication cultures, and differing views on the impact of research. Among other recommendations, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim to create a joint publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both inside and outside of academia.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.038",
    doi = "10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.038",
    openalex = "W2191342313",
    references = "doi101162jinha00379"
}

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

@article{doi101038nature14401,
    author = "Members, WAIS Divide Project",
    title = "Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age",
    year = "2015",
    journal = "Nature",
    abstract = "The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14401",
    doi = "10.1038/nature14401",
    openalex = "W2159172047",
    references = "doi101016jquascirev201409007, doi105194cp111532015, doi105194cp917332013"
}

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

@article{doi101126scienceaaa4984,
    author = "Urban, Mark C.",
    title = "Accelerating extinction risk from climate change",
    year = "2015",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4984",
    doi = "10.1126/science.aaa4984",
    openalex = "W1974424100",
    references = "doi101111j14610248200801277x, doi101126science2134511957, doi1018637jssv033i02"
}

Abstract The climate of the past millennium provides a baseline for understanding the background of natural climate variability upon which current anthropogenic changes are superimposed. As this period also contains high data density from proxy sources (e.g., ice cores, stalagmites, corals, tree rings, and sediments), it provides a unique opportunity for understanding both global and regional-scale climate responses to natural forcing. Toward that end, an ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the period 850–2005 (the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble, or CESM-LME) is now available to the community. This ensemble includes simulations forced with the transient evolution of solar intensity, volcanic emissions, greenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use conditions, and orbital parameters, both together and individually. The CESM-LME thus allows for evaluation of the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to changes evident in the paleoclimate data record, as well as providing a longer-term perspective for understanding events in the modern instrumental period. It also constitutes a dynamically consistent framework within which to diagnose mechanisms of regional variability. Results demonstrate an important influence of internal variability on regional responses of the climate system during the past millennium. All the forcings, particularly large volcanic eruptions, are found to be regionally influential during the preindustrial period, while anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol changes dominate the forced variability of the mid- to late twentieth century.

@article{doi101175bamsd14002331,
    author = "Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L. and Brady, Esther C. and Fasullo, John and Jahn, Alexandra and Landrum, Laura and Stevenson, Samantha and Rosenbloom, Nan and Mai, A. and Strand, Gary",
    title = "Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model",
    year = "2015",
    journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",
    abstract = "Abstract The climate of the past millennium provides a baseline for understanding the background of natural climate variability upon which current anthropogenic changes are superimposed. As this period also contains high data density from proxy sources (e.g., ice cores, stalagmites, corals, tree rings, and sediments), it provides a unique opportunity for understanding both global and regional-scale climate responses to natural forcing. Toward that end, an ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the period 850–2005 (the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble, or CESM-LME) is now available to the community. This ensemble includes simulations forced with the transient evolution of solar intensity, volcanic emissions, greenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use conditions, and orbital parameters, both together and individually. The CESM-LME thus allows for evaluation of the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to changes evident in the paleoclimate data record, as well as providing a longer-term perspective for understanding events in the modern instrumental period. It also constitutes a dynamically consistent framework within which to diagnose mechanisms of regional variability. Results demonstrate an important influence of internal variability on regional responses of the climate system during the past millennium. All the forcings, particularly large volcanic eruptions, are found to be regionally influential during the preindustrial period, while anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol changes dominate the forced variability of the mid- to late twentieth century.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1",
    doi = "10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1",
    openalex = "W1941426989",
    references = "doi1011770959683608098952"
}

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

@article{doi101073pnas1607171113,
    author = "Abatzoglou, John T. and Williams, Park",
    title = "Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests",
    year = "2016",
    journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
    abstract = "Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75\% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55\% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113",
    doi = "10.1073/pnas.1607171113",
    openalex = "W2530960585",
    references = "doi1010292003jd003823"
}

BACKGROUND: Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. KEY QUESTIONS: The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism-stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism-stability linkage for conservation? CONCLUSIONS: Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large.

@article{doi101093aobmcw248,
    author = "Harrison, Susan and Noss, Reed F.",
    title = "Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia",
    year = "2016",
    journal = "Annals of Botany",
    abstract = "BACKGROUND: Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. KEY QUESTIONS: The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism-stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism-stability linkage for conservation? CONCLUSIONS: Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcw248",
    doi = "10.1093/aob/mcw248",
    openalex = "W2570769028",
    references = "doi101111j14668238201100686x"
}

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

@article{doi101371journalpone0159909,
    author = "Morelli, Toni Lyn and Daly, Christopher and Dobrowski, Solomon Z. and Dulen, Deanna and Ebersole, Joseph L. and Jackson, Stephen T. and Lundquist, Jessica D. and Millar, Constance I. and Maher, Sean P. and Monahan, William B. and Nydick, Koren R. and Redmond, Kelly T. and Sawyer, Sarah C. and Stock, Sarah and Beissinger, Steven R.",
    title = "Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation",
    year = "2016",
    journal = "PLoS ONE",
    abstract = "Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159909",
    doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0159909",
    openalex = "W2499516979",
    references = "doi101098rspb20091272, doi101111j14668238201100686x"
}

The task of reconceptualizing planetary change for the human imagination calls on a wide range of disciplinary wisdom. Environmental studies were guided by the natural sciences in the 1960s, and in the 1970s broadened to include policy and the social sciences. By the 1990s, with global environmental changes well‐documented, various humanist initiatives emerged, expanding the idea of ethics, responsibility and justice within the transdisciplinary mode of environmental studies. Shared problems, places, and scales form the basis for collaborative work in the environmental humanities, sometimes in partnerships with natural sciences and the creative arts. Experiential learning and trust in judgments based on different methods typically guide humanities interventions. Shifting the frameworks of environmental research to be more consciously inclusive and diverse is enabling concepts of the physical world that better include humans and taking ethics beyond humans to consider more‐than‐human Others. This review considers historically how the environment and the humanities became conceptualized together. It then explores three emerging fields in transdisciplinary environmental scholarship where environmental humanities are playing major leadership roles: (1) climate and biodiversity justice, both for humans and for other forms of life; (2) the Anthropocene as a metaphor for living with planetary changes and (3) life after ‘the end of nature,’ including rewilding and restoration. While environmental humanities also work in many other fields, these cases exemplify the crucial tasks of situating the human in geological and ecological terms and other life forms (the ‘more‐than‐human’) in ethical terms. WIREs Clim Change 2018, 9:e499. doi: 10.1002/wcc.499 This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives

@article{doi101002wcc499,
    author = "Robin, Libby",
    title = "Environmental humanities and climate change: understanding humans geologically and other life forms ethically",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change",
    abstract = "The task of reconceptualizing planetary change for the human imagination calls on a wide range of disciplinary wisdom. Environmental studies were guided by the natural sciences in the 1960s, and in the 1970s broadened to include policy and the social sciences. By the 1990s, with global environmental changes well‐documented, various humanist initiatives emerged, expanding the idea of ethics, responsibility and justice within the transdisciplinary mode of environmental studies. Shared problems, places, and scales form the basis for collaborative work in the environmental humanities, sometimes in partnerships with natural sciences and the creative arts. Experiential learning and trust in judgments based on different methods typically guide humanities interventions. Shifting the frameworks of environmental research to be more consciously inclusive and diverse is enabling concepts of the physical world that better include humans and taking ethics beyond humans to consider more‐than‐human Others. This review considers historically how the environment and the humanities became conceptualized together. It then explores three emerging fields in transdisciplinary environmental scholarship where environmental humanities are playing major leadership roles: (1) climate and biodiversity justice, both for humans and for other forms of life; (2) the Anthropocene as a metaphor for living with planetary changes and (3) life after ‘the end of nature,’ including rewilding and restoration. While environmental humanities also work in many other fields, these cases exemplify the crucial tasks of situating the human in geological and ecological terms and other life forms (the ‘more‐than‐human’) in ethical terms. WIREs Clim Change 2018, 9:e499. doi: 10.1002/wcc.499 This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.499",
    doi = "10.1002/wcc.499",
    openalex = "W2766412590",
    references = "doi101016jgloplacha201704007"
}

Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

@article{doi101007s4057201701686,
    author = "Orru, Hans and Ebi, K. L. and Forsberg, Bertil",
    title = "The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Current Environmental Health Reports",
    abstract = "Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-017-0168-6",
    doi = "10.1007/s40572-017-0168-6",
    openalex = "W2765153103",
    references = "doi1010801096224720151040526"
}

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.

@article{doi101111gcb13629,
    author = "McLaughlin, Blair C. and Ackerly, David D. and Klos, P. Zion and Natali, Jennifer and Dawson, Todd E. and Thompson, Sally",
    title = "Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Global Change Biology",
    abstract = "Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13629",
    doi = "10.1111/gcb.13629",
    openalex = "W2603004144",
    references = "doi101016jtree201410002, doi101111j14668238201100686x"
}

Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.

@article{doi101111gcb13925,
    author = "Dyderski, Marcin K. and Paź‐Dyderska, Sonia and Frelich, Lee E. and Jagodziński, Andrzej M.",
    title = "How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Global Change Biology",
    abstract = {Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.},
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13925",
    doi = "10.1111/gcb.13925",
    openalex = "W2763250374",
    references = "doi101007s0038201216361"
}

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

@article{doi101111gcb13976,
    author = "Alexander, Jake M. and Chalmandrier, Loïc and Lenoir, Jonathan and Burgess, Treena I. and Essl, Franz and Haider, Sylvia and Kueffer, Christoph and McDougall, Keith L. and Milbau, Ann and Núñez, Martín A. and Pauchard, Aníbal and Rabitsch, Wolfgang and Rew, Lisa J. and Sanders, Nathan J. and Pellissier, Loïc",
    title = "Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Global Change Biology",
    abstract = {Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.},
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13976",
    doi = "10.1111/gcb.13976",
    openalex = "W2767366136",
    references = "doi1010079783642189708, doi101038nature00812, doi101038nclimate2563, doi101071bt07159, doi101073pnas0409902102, doi101086283244, doi101111gcb13492, doi101111j1469185x201200235x, doi101126science1156831, doi101126science1206432, doi101146annurevecolsys311343, doi1018900617361, lenoir2017climatic"
}

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

@article{doi101126scienceaai9214,
    author = "Pecl, GT and Araújo, Miguel B. and Bell, Johann D. and Blanchard, Julia L. and Bonebrake, Timothy C. and Chen, I‐Ching and Clark, Thomas D. and Colwell, Robert K. and Danielsen, Finn and Evengård, Birgitta and Falconi, Lorena and Ferrier, Simon and Frusher, SD and Garcia, Raquel A. and Griffis, Roger B. and Hobday, Alistair J. and Janion‐Scheepers, Charlene and Jarzyna, Marta A. and Jennings, Sarah and Lenoir, Jonathan and Linnetved, Hlif I. and Martin, Victoria Y. and McCormack, Phillipa C. and McDonald, Jan and Mitchell, Nicola J. and Mustonen, Tero and Pandolfi, John M. and Pettorelli, Nathalie and Popova, Ekaterina and Robinson, Sharon A. and Scheffers, Brett R. and Shaw, Justine D. and Sorte, Cascade J. B. and Strugnell, Jan M. and Sunday, Jennifer M. and Tuanmu, Mao‐Ning and Vergés, Adriana and Villanueva, Cecilia and Wernberg, Thomas and Wapstra, Erik and Williams, Stephen E.",
    title = "Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai9214",
    doi = "10.1126/science.aai9214",
    openalex = "W2598701004",
    references = "doi101016jtree201508009, doi101029pa005i001p00001, doi101126science1097403, doi101126science1173113, doi101126science1185383, doi101126science2925517673, openalexw2530597942"
}

The Tröllaskagi peninsula is located in northern Iceland, between meridian 19°30′W and 18°10′W, jutting out into the North Atlantic to latitude 66°12′N. The aim of this research is to study recent glacier changes in relation to climatic evolution of the Gljúfurárjökull and Tungnahryggsjökull debris-free valley glaciers in Tröllaskagi. Glacier extent mapping and spatial analysis operations were performed with ArcGIS (ESRI), using analysis of aerial photographs from 1946, 1985, 1994 and 2000, and a 2005 SPOT satellite image. The results show that these glaciers lost a quarter of their surface area between the ‘Little Ice Age’ and 2005. In this paper, the term ‘Little Ice Age’ follows Grove (2001) as the most recent period when glaciers extended globally between the medieval period and the early 20th century. The abrupt climatic transition of the early 20th century and the 25-year warm period 1925–1950 triggered the main retreat and volume loss of these glaciers since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Meanwhile, cooling during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s altered the trend, with advances of the glacier snouts. Between the ‘Little Ice Age’ and the present day, the mean annual air temperature and mean ablation season air temperature increased by 1.9°C and 1.5°C, respectively, leading to a 40–50 m rise in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glaciers during this period. The response of these glaciers depends not only on the mean ablation season air temperature evolution but also on other factors such as winter precipitation. The models applied show a precipitation increase of up to more than 700 mm since the ‘Little Ice Age’.

@article{doi1011770959683616683262,
    author = "Fernández‐Fernández, José M. and Andrés, Nuria and Sæmundsson, Þorsteinn and Brynjólfsson, Skafti and Palacios, David",
    title = "High sensitivity of North Iceland (Tröllaskagi) debris-free glaciers to climatic change from the ‘Little Ice Age’ to the present",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "The Holocene",
    abstract = "The Tröllaskagi peninsula is located in northern Iceland, between meridian 19°30′W and 18°10′W, jutting out into the North Atlantic to latitude 66°12′N. The aim of this research is to study recent glacier changes in relation to climatic evolution of the Gljúfurárjökull and Tungnahryggsjökull debris-free valley glaciers in Tröllaskagi. Glacier extent mapping and spatial analysis operations were performed with ArcGIS (ESRI), using analysis of aerial photographs from 1946, 1985, 1994 and 2000, and a 2005 SPOT satellite image. The results show that these glaciers lost a quarter of their surface area between the ‘Little Ice Age’ and 2005. In this paper, the term ‘Little Ice Age’ follows Grove (2001) as the most recent period when glaciers extended globally between the medieval period and the early 20th century. The abrupt climatic transition of the early 20th century and the 25-year warm period 1925–1950 triggered the main retreat and volume loss of these glaciers since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Meanwhile, cooling during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s altered the trend, with advances of the glacier snouts. Between the ‘Little Ice Age’ and the present day, the mean annual air temperature and mean ablation season air temperature increased by 1.9°C and 1.5°C, respectively, leading to a 40–50 m rise in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glaciers during this period. The response of these glaciers depends not only on the mean ablation season air temperature evolution but also on other factors such as winter precipitation. The models applied show a precipitation increase of up to more than 700 mm since the ‘Little Ice Age’.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616683262",
    doi = "10.1177/0959683616683262",
    openalex = "W2568363889",
    references = "doi101016jcageo201505005, doi101016jquaint200502004, doi101016jquascirev200810011, doi101017s0022143000002276, doi101017s002214300000928x, doi101023a1005662822136, doi10102997jb01696, doi101126science2695224676, doi1043249780203402863chapter7, ogilvie2010historical, openalexw2068090847"
}

The role of modern climatic microrefugia is a neglected aspect in the study of biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Current projections of species redistribution at continental extent are based on climatic grids of coarse (≥ 1 km) resolutions that fail to capture spatiotemporal dynamics associated with climatic microrefugia. Here, we review recent methods to model the climatic component of potential microrefugia and highlight research gaps in accounting for the buffering capacity due to biophysical processes operating at very fine (

@article{lenoir2017climatic,
    author = "Lenoir, Jonathan and Hattab, Tarek and Pierre, Guillaume",
    title = "Climatic microrefugia under anthropogenic climate change: implications for species redistribution",
    year = "2017",
    journal = "Ecography",
    abstract = "The role of modern climatic microrefugia is a neglected aspect in the study of biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Current projections of species redistribution at continental extent are based on climatic grids of coarse (≥ 1 km) resolutions that fail to capture spatiotemporal dynamics associated with climatic microrefugia. Here, we review recent methods to model the climatic component of potential microrefugia and highlight research gaps in accounting for the buffering capacity due to biophysical processes operating at very fine (",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02788",
    doi = "10.1111/ecog.02788",
    number = "2",
    openalex = "W2548804253",
    pages = "253-266",
    volume = "40",
    references = "doi101002joc1276, doi101038nature09678, doi101098rspb20091272, doi101111j14610248200500739x, doi101111j14610248200801277x, doi101111j14668238201100686x, doi101126science1156831, doi101126science2925517673, doi1016410006356820020520019lrsfes20co2, openalexw1599043334"
}

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

@article{doi101038sdata2017191,
    author = "Abatzoglou, John T. and Dobrowski, Solomon Z. and Parks, Sean A. and Hegewisch, Katherine C.",
    title = "TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015",
    year = "2018",
    journal = "Scientific Data",
    abstract = "We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, \textasciitilde 4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.191",
    doi = "10.1038/sdata.2017.191",
    openalex = "W2784327149",
    references = "doi101002joc3711, doi101002joc5086, doi101175jtechd11001031, doi102151jmsj2015001"
}

Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.

@article{doi101525elementa279,
    author = "Lefohn, Allen S. and Malley, Christopher S. and Smith, Luther and Wells, Benjamin B. and Hazucha, Milan J. and Simon, Heather and Naïk, Vaishali and Mills, Gina and Schultz, Martin G. and Paoletti, Elena and Marco, Alessandra De and Xu, Xiaobin and Zhang, Li and Wang, Tao and Neufeld, Howard S. and Musselman, Robert C. and Tarasick, D. W. and Bräuer, Michael and Feng, Zhaozhong and Tang, Haoye and Kobayashi, Kazuhiko and Sicard, Pierre and Solberg, Sverre and Gerosa, Giacomo",
    title = "Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research",
    year = "2018",
    journal = "Elementa Science of the Anthropocene",
    abstract = "Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.279",
    doi = "10.1525/elementa.279",
    openalex = "W2795845062",
    references = "doi1010801096224720151040526"
}

Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date.

@article{doi1010292019ef001210,
    author = "Williams, Park and Abatzoglou, John T. and Gershunov, Alexander and Guzman‐Morales, Janin and Bishop, Daniel A. and Balch, Jennifer K. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.",
    title = "Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California",
    year = "2019",
    journal = "Earth s Future",
    abstract = "Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001210",
    doi = "10.1029/2019ef001210",
    openalex = "W2956661266",
    references = "doi101175jtechd11001031"
}

Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.

@article{doi101073pnas1815107116,
    author = "Davis, Kimberley T. and Dobrowski, Solomon Z. and Higuera, Philip E. and Holden, Zachary A. and Veblen, Thomas T. and Rother, Monica T. and Parks, Sean A. and Sala, Anna and Maneta, Marco",
    title = "Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration",
    year = "2019",
    journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
    abstract = "Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1815107116",
    doi = "10.1073/pnas.1815107116",
    openalex = "W2922344902",
    references = "doi101111ecog03836, doi105860choice481462"
}

Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion thatincreasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near-coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO 2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO 2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic

@article{doi10108817489326aafc1b,
    author = "Box, Jason E. and Colgan, William and Christensen, Torben R. and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Lund, Magnus and Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W. and Brown, Ross and Bhatt, Uma S. and Euskirchen, E. S. and Romanovsky, V. E. and Walsh, John E. and Overland, James E. and Wang, Muyin and Corell, Robert W. and Meier, Walter N. and Wouters, Bert and Mernild, Sebastian H. and Mård, Johanna and Pawlak, Janet and Olsen, M. S.",
    title = "Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017",
    year = "2019",
    journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
    abstract = "Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion thatincreasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near-coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO 2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO 2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b",
    doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b",
    openalex = "W2926348723",
    references = "doi1010022015jg003131, doi1010022015jg003132, doi101023a1005667424292, doi101038ngeo2674, doi1010881748932697075001"
}

In 1641, according to the vicar Thomas Johnson, Irish rebels in Mayo, in “meere hatred and derision of the English,” tried a group of English cattle for unspecified charges. They were convicted and executed. Many historians have pointed to this striking event as an example of the deep hatred underlying popular violence in the rebellion. The trials, however, were merely the most spectacular iteration of long-standing conflicts over transformations in animal husbandry between the Munster Plantation in the 1580s and the rebellion of the 1640s. The new pastoralism that emerged during these decades threatened traditional practices and landscapes while creating new vulnerabilities to poor weather and economic downturns. The combination of economic crises and harsh weather associated with the Little Ice Age exposed these vulnerabilities. The cow trials show that environmental forces shaped the 1641 Rebellion but demonstrate that historians assessing the impacts of climate and weather must attend to the social and economic contexts that produce vulnerability.

@article{doi101093envhisemz095,
    author = "Pluymers, Keith",
    title = "Cow Trials, Climate Change, and the Causes of Violence",
    year = "2019",
    journal = "Environmental History",
    abstract = "In 1641, according to the vicar Thomas Johnson, Irish rebels in Mayo, in “meere hatred and derision of the English,” tried a group of English cattle for unspecified charges. They were convicted and executed. Many historians have pointed to this striking event as an example of the deep hatred underlying popular violence in the rebellion. The trials, however, were merely the most spectacular iteration of long-standing conflicts over transformations in animal husbandry between the Munster Plantation in the 1580s and the rebellion of the 1640s. The new pastoralism that emerged during these decades threatened traditional practices and landscapes while creating new vulnerabilities to poor weather and economic downturns. The combination of economic crises and harsh weather associated with the Little Ice Age exposed these vulnerabilities. The cow trials show that environmental forces shaped the 1641 Rebellion but demonstrate that historians assessing the impacts of climate and weather must attend to the social and economic contexts that produce vulnerability.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1093/envhis/emz095",
    doi = "10.1093/envhis/emz095",
    openalex = "W3007898296",
    references = "doi1010179781316338773027"
}

Upward shifts of mountain vegetation lag behind rates of climate warming, partly related to interconnected changes belowground. Here, we unravel above- and belowground linkages by drawing insights from short-term experimental manipulations and elevation gradient studies. Soils will likely gain carbon in early successional ecosystems, while losing carbon as forest expands upward, and the slow, high-elevation soil development will constrain warming-induced vegetation shifts. Current approaches fail to predict the pace of these changes and how much they will be modified by interactions among plants and soil biota. Integrating mountain soils and their biota into monitoring programs, combined with innovative comparative and experimental approaches, will be crucial to overcome the paucity of belowground data and to better understand mountain ecosystem dynamics and their feedbacks to climate.

@article{doi101126scienceaax4737,
    author = "Hagedorn, Frank and Gavazov, Konstantin and Alexander, Jake M.",
    title = "Above- and belowground linkages shape responses of mountain vegetation to climate change",
    year = "2019",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Upward shifts of mountain vegetation lag behind rates of climate warming, partly related to interconnected changes belowground. Here, we unravel above- and belowground linkages by drawing insights from short-term experimental manipulations and elevation gradient studies. Soils will likely gain carbon in early successional ecosystems, while losing carbon as forest expands upward, and the slow, high-elevation soil development will constrain warming-induced vegetation shifts. Current approaches fail to predict the pace of these changes and how much they will be modified by interactions among plants and soil biota. Integrating mountain soils and their biota into monitoring programs, combined with innovative comparative and experimental approaches, will be crucial to overcome the paucity of belowground data and to better understand mountain ecosystem dynamics and their feedbacks to climate.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax4737",
    doi = "10.1126/science.aax4737",
    openalex = "W2972954225",
    references = "doi101111gcb13976"
}

Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

@article{doi101002fee2189,
    author = "Morelli, Toni Lyn and Barrows, Cameron W. and Ramirez, Aaron R. and Cartwright, Jennifer and Ackerly, David D. and Eaves, Tatiana D and Ebersole, Joseph L. and Krawchuk, Meg A. and Letcher, Benjamin H. and Mahalovich, Mary F. and Meigs, Garrett W. and Michalak, Julia and Millar, Constance I. and Quiñones, Rebecca M. and Stralberg, Diana and Thorne, James H.",
    title = "Climate‐change refugia: biodiversity in the slow lane",
    year = "2020",
    journal = "Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment",
    abstract = {Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.},
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2189",
    doi = "10.1002/fee.2189",
    openalex = "W3032686292",
    references = "doi101038s4155801802319"
}

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

@article{doi101016jscitotenv2020137782,
    author = "Weiskopf, Sarah R. and Rubenstein, Madeleine A. and Crozier, Lisa G. and Gaichas, Sarah and Griffis, Roger B. and Halofsky, Jessica E. and Hyde, Kimberly and Morelli, Toni Lyn and Morisette, Jeffrey T. and Muñ̃oz, Roldan C. and Pershing, Andrew J. and Peterson, David L. and Poudel, Rajendra and Staudinger, Michelle D. and Sutton‐Grier, Ariana E. and Thompson, Laura M. and Vose, James M. and Weltzin, Jake F. and Whyte, Kyle Powys",
    title = "Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States",
    year = "2020",
    journal = "The Science of The Total Environment",
    abstract = "Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782",
    doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782",
    openalex = "W3012037987",
    references = "doi101002fee1451, doi101016jtree201406005, doi101016jtree201508009, doi101016s0065250408602123, doi101111gcb13976, doi101111j13652435200701283x, doi101126science1210288, doi101126science1239207, openalexw2896296657"
}

Abstract Climate and litter quality drive litter decomposition, but there is currently little consensus on their relative importance, likely because studies differ in the duration, the climatic gradients and variability in litter‐trait values. Understanding these drivers is important because they determine the direct and indirect (via vegetation composition) effects of climate change on decomposition and thereby on carbon and nutrient cycling. We studied how microclimate (soil moisture and temperature) and litter traits interactively affect litter mass loss, by using a reciprocal litter translocation experiment along a large climatic gradient in Chile. We followed decomposition for 2 years and used 30 plant species with a wide spectrum of functional‐trait values. Litter traits had a strong impact on litter decomposition across the gradient, while an increase in decomposition with soil moisture was observed only in the wettest climates. Overall, soil moisture increased considerably in importance, relative to trait effects, at later decomposition stages, from c. 15% of the importance of traits after 3 and 6 months to c. 110% after 24 months. Moreover, analysing subsets of the 30 species showed that trait effects on litter decomposition gained in importance when including a greater variation in trait values. Synthesis. The relative effects of litter traits and climate on decomposition depend on the ranges in climate and litter traits considered and change with time. Our study emphasizes the critical role of representative ranges in climate and functional trait values for understanding the drivers of litter decomposition and for improving predictions of climate‐change effects on this important ecosystem process.

@article{doi1011111365274513516,
    author = "Canessa, Rafaella and van den Brink, Liesbeth and Saldaña, Alfredo and Ríos, Rodrigo S. and Hättenschwiler, Stephan and Mueller, Carsten W. and Prater, Isabel and Tielbörger, Katja and Bader, Maaike Y.",
    title = "Relative effects of climate and litter traits on decomposition change with time, climate and trait variability",
    year = "2020",
    journal = "Journal of Ecology",
    abstract = "Abstract Climate and litter quality drive litter decomposition, but there is currently little consensus on their relative importance, likely because studies differ in the duration, the climatic gradients and variability in litter‐trait values. Understanding these drivers is important because they determine the direct and indirect (via vegetation composition) effects of climate change on decomposition and thereby on carbon and nutrient cycling. We studied how microclimate (soil moisture and temperature) and litter traits interactively affect litter mass loss, by using a reciprocal litter translocation experiment along a large climatic gradient in Chile. We followed decomposition for 2 years and used 30 plant species with a wide spectrum of functional‐trait values. Litter traits had a strong impact on litter decomposition across the gradient, while an increase in decomposition with soil moisture was observed only in the wettest climates. Overall, soil moisture increased considerably in importance, relative to trait effects, at later decomposition stages, from c. 15\% of the importance of traits after 3 and 6 months to c. 110\% after 24 months. Moreover, analysing subsets of the 30 species showed that trait effects on litter decomposition gained in importance when including a greater variation in trait values. Synthesis. The relative effects of litter traits and climate on decomposition depend on the ranges in climate and litter traits considered and change with time. Our study emphasizes the critical role of representative ranges in climate and functional trait values for understanding the drivers of litter decomposition and for improving predictions of climate‐change effects on this important ecosystem process.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13516",
    doi = "10.1111/1365-2745.13516",
    openalex = "W3092451640",
    references = "doi101016jagrformet201812018"
}

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

@article{doi101073pnas2002543117,
    author = "Halsch, Christopher A. and Shapiro, Arthur M. and Fordyce, James A. and Nice, Chris C. and Thorne, James H. and Waetjen, David P. and Forister, Matthew L.",
    title = "Insects and recent climate change",
    year = "2021",
    journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
    abstract = "Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002543117",
    doi = "10.1073/pnas.2002543117",
    openalex = "W3120704587",
    references = "doi101038s4155801802319"
}

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade -1 since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of -5.7 and -6.0 days decade -1, respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from -1.0 to +1.3 days decade -1. Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of -2.4 and -2.8 days decade -1, respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade -1) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade -1 for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade -1 for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between -1.0 and +11 m decade -1 for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade -1) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade -1), except for semi-aquatic insects (-4.7 m decade -1). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade -1 since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.

@article{doi101111brv12727,
    author = "Vitasse, Yann and Ursenbacher, Sylvain and Klein, Geoffrey and Bohnenstengel, Thierry and Chittaro, Yannick and Delestrade, Anne and Monnerat, Christian and Rebetez, Martine and Rixen, Christian and Strebel, Nicolas and Schmidt, Benedikt R. and Wipf, Sonja and Wohlgemuth, Thomas and Yoccoz, Nigel G. and Lenoir, Jonathan",
    title = "Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the E uropean A lps",
    year = "2021",
    journal = "Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society",
    abstract = "Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade -1 since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of -5.7 and -6.0 days decade -1, respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from -1.0 to +1.3 days decade -1. Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of -2.4 and -2.8 days decade -1, respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade -1) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade -1 for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade -1 for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between -1.0 and +11 m decade -1 for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade -1) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade -1), except for semi-aquatic insects (-4.7 m decade -1). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade -1 since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12727",
    doi = "10.1111/brv.12727",
    openalex = "W3159411649",
    references = "doi101038s4155901908421, doi101038s4158601800056, doi101126scienceaba6880, doi105194tc127592018"
}

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

@article{doi101111gcb15569,
    author = "Frenne, Pieter De and Lenoir, Jonathan and Luoto, Miska and Scheffers, Brett R. and Zellweger, Florian and Aalto, Juha and Ashcroft, Michael B. and Christiansen, Ditte Marie and Decocq, Guillaume and Pauw, Karen De and Govaert, Sanne and Greiser, Caroline and Gril, Eva and Hampe, Arndt and Jucker, Tommaso and Klinges, David H. and Koelemeijer, Irena A. and Lembrechts, Jonas J. and Marrec, Ronan and Meeussen, Camille and Ogée, Jérôme and Tyystjärvi, Vilna and Vangansbeke, Pieter and Hylander, Kristoffer",
    title = "Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda",
    year = "2021",
    journal = "Global Change Biology",
    abstract = "Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15569",
    doi = "10.1111/gcb.15569",
    openalex = "W3125213608",
    references = "doi101016jforeco200909001, doi101016jtree201812012, doi101038s4155901908421, doi101038s41598017177655, doi101073pnas0709472105, doi101073pnas1607171113, doi101086284165, doi101111ecog03836, doi101111ecog03947, doi101111j14668238201100686x, doi101111j1469185x1977tb01347x, doi101126science1098704, doi101126science1155121, doi101126scienceaax0848, doi101126scienceaba6880, doi1018900012965819970781966tiofac20co2, doi1023072389612, lenoir2017climatic"
}

Abstract Motivation More than half of Earth's species are contained in a mere 1.4% of its land area, but the climates of many of these biodiversity hotspots are projected to disappear as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. There is growing recognition that spatio‐temporal patterns of climate in biodiversity hotspots have shaped biological diversity over a variety of historical time‐scales, yet these patterns are rarely taken into account in assessments of the vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to future climate change. In our review, we synthesize the climatic processes that have led to the diversification of hotspots and interpret what this means in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We demonstrate the importance of mesoclimatic processes and fine‐scale topographical heterogeneity, in combination with climatic variability, in driving speciation processes and maintaining high levels of diversity. We outline why these features of hotspots are crucial to understanding the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and discuss how recent advances in predictive modelling enable vulnerability to be understood better. Location Global. Main conclusions We contend that many, although not all, biodiversity hotspots have climate and landscape characteristics that create fine‐scale spatial variability in climate, which potentially buffers them from climatic changes. Temporally, many hotspots have also experienced stable climates through evolutionary time, making them particularly vulnerable to future changes. Others have experienced more variable climates, which is likely to provide resilience to future changes. Thus, in order to identify risk for global biodiversity, we need to consider carefully the influence of spatio‐temporal variability in climate. However, most vulnerability assessments in biodiversity hotspots are still reliant on climate data with coarse spatial and temporal resolution. Higher‐resolution forecasts that account for spatio‐temporal variability in climate and account better for the physiological responses of organisms to this variability are much needed to inform future conservation strategies.

@article{doi101111geb13272,
    author = "Trew, Brittany T. and Maclean, Ilya M. D.",
    title = "Vulnerability of global biodiversity hotspots to climate change",
    year = "2021",
    journal = "Global Ecology and Biogeography",
    abstract = "Abstract Motivation More than half of Earth's species are contained in a mere 1.4\% of its land area, but the climates of many of these biodiversity hotspots are projected to disappear as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. There is growing recognition that spatio‐temporal patterns of climate in biodiversity hotspots have shaped biological diversity over a variety of historical time‐scales, yet these patterns are rarely taken into account in assessments of the vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to future climate change. In our review, we synthesize the climatic processes that have led to the diversification of hotspots and interpret what this means in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We demonstrate the importance of mesoclimatic processes and fine‐scale topographical heterogeneity, in combination with climatic variability, in driving speciation processes and maintaining high levels of diversity. We outline why these features of hotspots are crucial to understanding the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and discuss how recent advances in predictive modelling enable vulnerability to be understood better. Location Global. Main conclusions We contend that many, although not all, biodiversity hotspots have climate and landscape characteristics that create fine‐scale spatial variability in climate, which potentially buffers them from climatic changes. Temporally, many hotspots have also experienced stable climates through evolutionary time, making them particularly vulnerable to future changes. Others have experienced more variable climates, which is likely to provide resilience to future changes. Thus, in order to identify risk for global biodiversity, we need to consider carefully the influence of spatio‐temporal variability in climate. However, most vulnerability assessments in biodiversity hotspots are still reliant on climate data with coarse spatial and temporal resolution. Higher‐resolution forecasts that account for spatio‐temporal variability in climate and account better for the physiological responses of organisms to this variability are much needed to inform future conservation strategies.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13272",
    doi = "10.1111/geb.13272",
    openalex = "W3131055355",
    references = "doi101016jtree201812012, doi101038s4155801802319, doi101038s4155901908421, doi101126scienceaar5452, doi101146annurevecolsys112414054102"
}

Abstract Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort.

@article{doi101002ecm1553,
    author = "Harvey, Jeffrey A. and Tougeron, Kévin and Gols, Rieta and Heinen, Robin and Abarca, Mariana and Abram, Paul K. and Basset, Yves and Berg, Matty P. and Boggs, Carol L. and Brodeur, Jacques and Cardoso, Pedro and de Boer, Jetske G. and de Snoo, G.R. and Deacon, Charl and Dell, Jane E. and Desneux, Nicolas and Dillon, Michael E. and Duffy, Grant A. and Dyer, Lee A. and Ellers, Jacintha and Espíndola, Anahí and Fordyce, James A. and Forister, Matthew L. and Fukushima, Caroline Sayuri and Gage, Matthew J. G. and García‐Robledo, Carlos and Gely, Claire and Gobbi, Mauro and Hallmann, Caspar A. and Hance, Thierry and Harte, John and Hochkirch, Axel and Hof, Christian and Hoffmann, Ary A. and Kingsolver, Joel G. and Lamarre, Greg P. A. and Laurance, William F. and Lavandero, Blas and Leather, Simon R. and Lehmann, Philipp and Lann, Cécile Le and López‐Uribe, Margarita M. and Ma, Chun‐Sen and Ma, Gang and Moiroux, Joffrey and Monticelli, Lucie S. and Nice, Chris C. and Ode, Paul J. and Pincebourde, Sylvain and Ripple, William J. and Rowe, Melissah and Samways, Michael J. and Sentis, Arnaud and Shah, Alisha A. and Stork, Nigel E. and Terblanche, John S. and Thakur, Madhav P. and Thomas, Matthew B. and Tylianakis, Jason M. and van Baaren, Joan and van de Pol, Martijn and van der Putten, Wim H. and Dyck, Hans Van and Verberk, Wilco C. E. P. and Wagner, David L. and Weisser, Wolfgang W. and Wetzel, William C. and Woods, H. Arthur and Wyckhuys, Kris A. G. and Chown, Steven L.",
    title = "Scientists' warning on climate change and insects",
    year = "2022",
    journal = "Ecological Monographs",
    abstract = "Abstract Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1553",
    doi = "10.1002/ecm.1553",
    openalex = "W4308325267",
    references = "doi101002wcc271, doi101002wcc81, doi101016jbiocon201901020, doi101016jbiocon2020108426, doi10103835016000, doi101038nature01286, doi101038nature02121, doi101038s4155802201290z, doi101038s4158601800056, doi101073pnas0709472105, doi101098rspb20070985, doi101111mec12152, doi101126science1098704, doi101126science1259855, doi101126scienceaai9214, doi101371journalpone0185809, doi103390insects12050440, lenoir2017climatic"
}

Abstract Recent decades have seen the rapid expansion of scholarship that identifies societal responses to past climatic fluctuations. This fast-changing scholarship, which was recently synthesized as the History of Climate and Society (HCS), is today undertaken primary by archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians and paleoclimatologists. This review is the first to consider how scholars in all of these disciplines approach HCS studies. It begins by explaining how climatic changes and anomalies are reconstructed by paleoclimatologists and historical climatologists. It then provides a broad overview of major changes and anomalies over the 300,000-year history of Homo sapiens, explaining both the causes and environmental consequences of these fluctuations. Next, it introduces the sources, methods, and models employed by scholars in major HCS disciplines. It continues by describing the debates, themes, and findings of HCS scholarship in its major disciplines, and then outlines the potential of transdisciplinary, ‘consilient’ approaches to the field. It concludes by explaining how HCS studies can inform policy and activism that confronts anthropogenic global warming.

@article{doi10108817489326ac8faa,
    author = "Degroot, Dagomar and Anchukaitis, Kevin J. and Tierney, Jessica E. and Riede, Felix and Manica, Andrea and Moesswilde, Emma C. and Gauthier, Nicolas",
    title = "The history of climate and society: a review of the influence of climate change on the human past",
    year = "2022",
    journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
    abstract = "Abstract Recent decades have seen the rapid expansion of scholarship that identifies societal responses to past climatic fluctuations. This fast-changing scholarship, which was recently synthesized as the History of Climate and Society (HCS), is today undertaken primary by archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians and paleoclimatologists. This review is the first to consider how scholars in all of these disciplines approach HCS studies. It begins by explaining how climatic changes and anomalies are reconstructed by paleoclimatologists and historical climatologists. It then provides a broad overview of major changes and anomalies over the 300,000-year history of Homo sapiens, explaining both the causes and environmental consequences of these fluctuations. Next, it introduces the sources, methods, and models employed by scholars in major HCS disciplines. It continues by describing the debates, themes, and findings of HCS scholarship in its major disciplines, and then outlines the potential of transdisciplinary, ‘consilient’ approaches to the field. It concludes by explaining how HCS studies can inform policy and activism that confronts anthropogenic global warming.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8faa",
    doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ac8faa",
    openalex = "W4296700380",
    references = "doi101057978113743020523"
}

Half of all plant species rely on animals to disperse their seeds. Seed dispersal interactions lost through defaunation and gained during novel community assembly influence whether plants can adapt to climate change through migration. We develop trait-based models to predict pairwise interactions and dispersal function for fleshy-fruited plants globally. Using interactions with introduced species as an observable proxy for interactions in future novel seed dispersal networks, we find strong potential to forecast their assembly and functioning. We conservatively estimate that mammal and bird defaunation has already reduced the capacity of plants to track climate change by 60% globally. This strong reduction in the ability of plants to adapt to climate change through range shifts shows a synergy between defaunation and climate change that undermines vegetation resilience.

@article{doi101126scienceabk3510,
    author = "Fricke, Evan C. and Ordóñez, Alejandro and Rogers, Haldre S. and Svenning, Jens‐Christian",
    title = "The effects of defaunation on plants’ capacity to track climate change",
    year = "2022",
    journal = "Science",
    abstract = "Half of all plant species rely on animals to disperse their seeds. Seed dispersal interactions lost through defaunation and gained during novel community assembly influence whether plants can adapt to climate change through migration. We develop trait-based models to predict pairwise interactions and dispersal function for fleshy-fruited plants globally. Using interactions with introduced species as an observable proxy for interactions in future novel seed dispersal networks, we find strong potential to forecast their assembly and functioning. We conservatively estimate that mammal and bird defaunation has already reduced the capacity of plants to track climate change by 60\% globally. This strong reduction in the ability of plants to adapt to climate change through range shifts shows a synergy between defaunation and climate change that undermines vegetation resilience.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abk3510",
    doi = "10.1126/science.abk3510",
    openalex = "W4205391572",
    references = "doi101111gcb13976"
}

Abstract The article evaluates recent scholarship on famines in Europe during the medieval and early modern periods (c. 700–1800), synthesizing the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge and identifying both research gaps and interdisciplinary potentials. Particular focus is placed on how, and to what extent, climatic change and variability is given explanatory power in famine causation. Current research, supported by recent advances in palaeoclimatology, reveals that anomalous cold conditions constituted the main environmental backdrop for severe food production crises that could result in famines in pre‐industrial Europe. Such food crises occurred most frequently between c. 1550 and 1710, during the climax of the Little Ice Age cooling, and can be connected to the strong dependency on grain in Europe during this period. The available body of scholarship demonstrates that famines in medieval and early modern Europe best can be understood as the result of the interactions of climatic and societal stressors responding to pre‐existing vulnerabilities. Recent research has shown that societal responses to these famines, and the appropriation of their consequences, have been much more comprehensive, dynamic, and substantial than previously assumed. The article concludes by providing recommendations for future studies on historical famines. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical Eras Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate

@article{doi101002wcc859,
    author = "Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier and Seim, Andrea and Collet, Dominik",
    title = "Famines in medieval and early modern Europe—Connecting climate and society",
    year = "2023",
    journal = "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change",
    abstract = "Abstract The article evaluates recent scholarship on famines in Europe during the medieval and early modern periods (c. 700–1800), synthesizing the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge and identifying both research gaps and interdisciplinary potentials. Particular focus is placed on how, and to what extent, climatic change and variability is given explanatory power in famine causation. Current research, supported by recent advances in palaeoclimatology, reveals that anomalous cold conditions constituted the main environmental backdrop for severe food production crises that could result in famines in pre‐industrial Europe. Such food crises occurred most frequently between c. 1550 and 1710, during the climax of the Little Ice Age cooling, and can be connected to the strong dependency on grain in Europe during this period. The available body of scholarship demonstrates that famines in medieval and early modern Europe best can be understood as the result of the interactions of climatic and societal stressors responding to pre‐existing vulnerabilities. Recent research has shown that societal responses to these famines, and the appropriation of their consequences, have been much more comprehensive, dynamic, and substantial than previously assumed. The article concludes by providing recommendations for future studies on historical famines. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical Eras Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.859",
    doi = "10.1002/wcc.859",
    openalex = "W4387340705",
    references = "doi101057978113743020523, doi1010800346875520211929455"
}

BACKGROUND: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. METHODS: We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? REVIEW FINDINGS: We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

@article{doi101186s13750023002960,
    author = "Rubenstein, Madeleine A. and Weiskopf, Sarah R. and Bertrand, Romain and Carter, Shawn L. and Comte, Lise and Eaton, Mitchell J. and Johnson, Ciara G. and Lenoir, Jonathan and Lynch, Abigail J. and Miller, Brian W. and Morelli, Toni Lyn and Rodriguez, Mari Angel and Terando, Adam and Thompson, Laura M.",
    title = "Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts",
    year = "2023",
    journal = "Environmental Evidence",
    abstract = "BACKGROUND: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. METHODS: We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? REVIEW FINDINGS: We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60\%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-023-00296-0",
    doi = "10.1186/s13750-023-00296-0",
    openalex = "W4363679403",
    references = "doi101111gcb13976"
}

In recent years, the adverse effect of climate change on soil properties in the agricultural sector has become a dreadful reality worldwide. Climate change-induced abiotic stresses such as salinity, drought and temperature fluctuations are devastating crops’ physiological responses, productivity and overall yield, which is ultimately posing a serious threat to global food security and agroecosystems. The applications of chemical fertilizers and pesticides contribute towards further deterioration and rapid changes in climate. Therefore, more careful, eco-friendly and sustainable strategies are required to mitigate the impact of climate-induced damage on the agricultural sector. This paper reviews the recently reported damaging impacts of abiotic stresses on various crops, along with two emerging mitigation strategies, biochar and biostimulants, in light of recent studies focusing on combating the worsening impact of the deteriorated environment and climate change on crops’ physiological responses, yields, soil properties and environment. Here, we highlighted the impact of climate change on agriculture and soil properties along with recently emerging mitigation strategies applying biochar and biostimulants, with an aim to protecting the soil, agriculture and environment.

@article{doi103390agriculture13081508,
    author = "Bibi, Farhana and Rahman, M. Azizur",
    title = "An Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Their Mitigation Strategies",
    year = "2023",
    journal = "Agriculture",
    abstract = "In recent years, the adverse effect of climate change on soil properties in the agricultural sector has become a dreadful reality worldwide. Climate change-induced abiotic stresses such as salinity, drought and temperature fluctuations are devastating crops’ physiological responses, productivity and overall yield, which is ultimately posing a serious threat to global food security and agroecosystems. The applications of chemical fertilizers and pesticides contribute towards further deterioration and rapid changes in climate. Therefore, more careful, eco-friendly and sustainable strategies are required to mitigate the impact of climate-induced damage on the agricultural sector. This paper reviews the recently reported damaging impacts of abiotic stresses on various crops, along with two emerging mitigation strategies, biochar and biostimulants, in light of recent studies focusing on combating the worsening impact of the deteriorated environment and climate change on crops’ physiological responses, yields, soil properties and environment. Here, we highlighted the impact of climate change on agriculture and soil properties along with recently emerging mitigation strategies applying biochar and biostimulants, with an aim to protecting the soil, agriculture and environment.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13081508",
    doi = "10.3390/agriculture13081508",
    openalex = "W4385348975",
    references = "doi101002ecm1553"
}

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

@article{doi101016s2542519624000214,
    author = "Pfenning‐Butterworth, Alaina C. and Buckley, Lauren B. and Drake, John M. and Farner, Johannah E. and Farrell, Maxwell J. and Gehman, Alyssa‐Lois M. and Mordecai, Erin A. and Stephens, Patrick R. and Gittleman, John L. and Davies, T. Jonathan",
    title = "Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases",
    year = "2024",
    journal = "The Lancet Planetary Health",
    abstract = "The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00021-4",
    doi = "10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00021-4",
    openalex = "W4393851853",
    references = "doi101111gcb15569, doi101126scienceabl4881"
}

This text brings together meteorology and the theory of glacier flow, providing a fundamental understanding of how glaciers respond to climate change. Attention is paid to the microclimate of glaciers and the physical processes regulating the exchange of energy and mass between glacier surface and atmosphere. Simple analytical and numerical models are used to:· investigate glaciers sensitivity to climate change· estimate response times· make an interpretation of historical glacier records· assess the contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise Modern developments in glacier research, including satellite measurements are discussed in detail, making this a valuable reference source.

@book{doi1012019781003760672,
    author = "Oerlemans, J.",
    title = "Glaciers and Climate Change",
    year = "2026",
    abstract = "This text brings together meteorology and the theory of glacier flow, providing a fundamental understanding of how glaciers respond to climate change. Attention is paid to the microclimate of glaciers and the physical processes regulating the exchange of energy and mass between glacier surface and atmosphere. Simple analytical and numerical models are used to:· investigate glaciers sensitivity to climate change· estimate response times· make an interpretation of historical glacier records· assess the contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise Modern developments in glacier research, including satellite measurements are discussed in detail, making this a valuable reference source.",
    url = "https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003760672",
    doi = "10.1201/9781003760672",
    openalex = "W1550686843"
}